arXiv:2609.24328v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Combining predictions from different models can improve performance at machine learning tasks, but the training of the individual models and the rule u...
By Congye Wang, Yan Lin, Zheyang Shen, Matthew A. Fisher, Chris. J. Oates
arXiv:2605. 30188v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Reliable probability estimates are critical in many machine learning applications, yet modern classifiers are often poorly calibrated.
By Eug\`ene Berta, David Holzm\"uller, Francis Bach, Michael I. Jordan
arXiv:2609.17386v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Test-time prompt tuning (TPT) enables adaptation on a single test instance, achieving improved accuracy but often sacrificing calibration performance....
By Yuwei Liang, Jian Liang, Dapeng Hu, Yinuo Xu, Ran He
arXiv:2608.30230v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Test-time prompt tuning (TPT) has emerged as a powerful paradigm, refining prompts for each test sample via entropy minimization (EM) over multiple aug...
By Jungwon Choi, Hyeonseo Jang, Kibok Lee, Eunwoo Kim
Top AI forecasting systems are approaching superforecaster-level accuracy on future world events, but still rely primarily on off-the-shelf LLMs combined with forecasting-specific context gathering and scaffolding. We study how to improve this recipe through ensembling: given a fixed number of samples, which off-the-shelf model forecasts should be combined to maximize accuracy?
CORE-STACK+ is a new meta‑learning framework for deep stacked generalization that tackles two key problems in heterogeneous vision ensembles: prediction‑space multicollinearity and calibration collapse. It introduces a four‑step preconditioning pipeline—kernelized redundancy filtering, a lightweight differentiable meta‑feature gate, a spectrum‑adaptive ridge penalty, and a Laplace‑approximate Bayesian blender—to jointly improve conditioning and calibration. Across six vision benchmarks, CORE‑STACK+ boosts accuracy, reduces model count and inference cost, and significantly lowers expected calibration error compared to existing methods.
By Noor Islam S. Mohammad