Optimizable Model Averaging (OMA) is a black‑box method that assigns nonnegative weights to each candidate model’s predictive probabilities, keeping all model parameters frozen. By minimizing regularized predictive entropy, OMA learns a single scalar coefficient per model to average outputs from heterogeneous architectures. The authors show that appropriate regularization reduces expected calibration error and improves the trade‑off between performance and calibration compared to simple output averaging.
arXiv:2609.24328v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Combining predictions from different models can improve performance at machine learning tasks, but the training of the individual models and the rule u...
arXiv:2605. 30188v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Reliable probability estimates are critical in many machine learning applications, yet modern classifiers are often poorly calibrated.
arXiv:2609.17386v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Test-time prompt tuning (TPT) enables adaptation on a single test instance, achieving improved accuracy but often sacrificing calibration performance....
arXiv:2608.30230v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Test-time prompt tuning (TPT) has emerged as a powerful paradigm, refining prompts for each test sample via entropy minimization (EM) over multiple aug...
Top AI forecasting systems are approaching superforecaster-level accuracy on future world events, but still rely primarily on off-the-shelf LLMs combined with forecasting-specific context gathering and scaffolding. We study how to improve this recipe through ensembling: given a fixed number of samples, which off-the-shelf model forecasts should be combined to maximize accuracy?
CORE-STACK+ is a new meta‑learning framework for deep stacked generalization that tackles two key problems in heterogeneous vision ensembles: prediction‑space multicollinearity and calibration collapse. It introduces a four‑step preconditioning pipeline—kernelized redundancy filtering, a lightweight differentiable meta‑feature gate, a spectrum‑adaptive ridge penalty, and a Laplace‑approximate Bayesian blender—to jointly improve conditioning and calibration. Across six vision benchmarks, CORE‑STACK+ boosts accuracy, reduces model count and inference cost, and significantly lowers expected calibration error compared to existing methods.
arXiv:2607. 06776v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We introduce an efficient Bayesian deep ensemble method for predictive regression designed to enhance interpretability while maintaining competitive predictive performance and computational efficiency.
arXiv:2606. 13589v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We present Simplex-Constrained Sparse Bagging (SCSB), a mathematically rigorous framework for post-training compression and probability calibration of bootstrap-based bagging ensembles.
arXiv:2601. 07965v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: When a model knows when it does not know, many possibilities emerge.
arXiv:2605. 23595v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: The rapid advancement of machine learning has led to an unprecedented expansion of model ecosystems, making it increasingly difficult to assess the reliability of newly released models on unseen and unlabeled data.
We introduce an efficient Bayesian deep ensemble method for predictive regression designed to enhance interpretability while maintaining competitive predictive performance and computational efficiency. Our method combines the statistical rigor of Bayesian inference with the scalability of deep ensembles, providing calibrated uncertainty estimates that enable its use not only for standalone prediction but also as a component within broader learning systems.
arXiv:2606. 29661v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Top AI forecasting systems are approaching superforecaster-level accuracy on future world events, but still rely primarily on off-the-shelf LLMs combined with forecasting-specific context gathering and scaffolding.