Hugging Face Trending Papers

Bayesian Expected Uncertainty Reduction (B-EUR) Model: A Computational Account of What Makes Design Options Worth Trying

This paper proposes the Bayesian Expected Uncertainty Reduction (B-EUR) model, which formalizes the value of trying a candidate design action as its expected reduction of epistemic uncertainty about action--outcome relations. The model addresses one part of the Uncertainty Driven Action (UDA) model's open question concerning how changes in uncertainty perception determine action selection.

arXiv AI
Aug 7

Bayesian Expected Uncertainty Reduction (B-EUR) Model: A Computational Account of What Makes Design Options Worth Trying

arXiv:2608. 05642v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: This paper proposes the Bayesian Expected Uncertainty Reduction (B-EUR) model, which formalizes the value of trying a candidate design action as its expected reduction of epistemic uncertainty about action--outcome relations.

By Shimon Honda, Takuma Miyaguchi, Koji Koizumi, Takanori Sano, Tristan Briard, Hideyoshi Yanagisawa
arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 19

Quantifying Aleatoric Uncertainty of In-Context Learning for Robust Measure of LLM Prediction Confidence

arXiv:2606. 19353v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: In-Context Learning (ICL) allows LLMs to adapt to new tasks from a few demonstrations, but its reliability remains a concern: predictions are highly sensitive to both prompt design and the model's ability to understand the context, obscuring whether failures arise from data properties or model limitations.

By Jinseok Chung, Minkyoung Song, Hyunji Jung, Namhoon Lee
arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 30

Thinking Under Uncertainty: Evidence Use and Information-Seeking in Language Models

arXiv:2607. 26845v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Inference-time thinking improves the performance of large language models, but aggregate outcomes do not reveal whether models use available evidence more effectively or seek information that could improve future decisions.

By Hua-Dong Xiong, Xinyuan Yan, Ji-An Li, Jingming Xue, Marcelo G. Mattar, Robert C. Wilson
Hugging Face Trending Papers
Jul 29

Thinking Under Uncertainty: Evidence Use and Information-Seeking in Language Models

Inference-time thinking improves the performance of large language models, but aggregate outcomes do not reveal whether models use available evidence more effectively or seek information that could improve future decisions. We distinguish these responses by measuring action preference, thinking length, and reported confidence under matched uncertainty.

arXiv AI
Jul 28

Rethinking Prospect Theory for LLMs: Revealing the Instability of Decision-Making under Epistemic Uncertainty

arXiv:2508. 08992v4 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Real-world decision-making often involves uncertainty expressed in linguistic rather than numerical terms, and Prospect Theory (PT) provides a classic framework for modeling human behavior under such uncertainty.

By Rui Wang, Qihan Lin, Jiayu Liu, Qing Zong, Tianshi Zheng, Dadi Guo, Haochen Shi, Peixuan Han, Weiqi Wang, Yangqiu Song