arXiv:2607. 14817v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Current evaluation of epistemic uncertainty relies on tasks such as out-ofdistribution detection and active learning.
arXiv:2606. 10777v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Uncertainty estimation is critical for deploying machine learning models in high-stakes settings.
arXiv:2608. 05995v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Reliable uncertainty estimates are critical in safety-sensitive applications, where understanding the sources of predictive uncertainty is essential.
arXiv:2606. 26990v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Uncertainty estimates in machine learning are typically evaluated using generic metrics such as the negative log-likelihood and expected calibration error, yet good performance on such metrics does not necessarily imply high utility in downstream decisions.
arXiv:2604. 26360v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) systems face a compounding alignment challenge: not only are learned reward models uncertain about unseen state-action pairs, but the human preference annotations they are trained on are themselves inconsistent, context-dependent, and noisy.
arXiv:2607. 15196v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We present a novel viewpoint for uncertainty quantification.
arXiv:2606. 19569v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is essential for reliable decision-making in safety-critical applications in probabilistic machine learning.
The paper introduces a ground‑truth framework for disentangling uncertainty into epistemic and aleatoric components using sample‑conditional pointwise posterior risk. It evaluates current methods, finding that Spectral‑normalized Neural Gaussian Processes and Variational Latent Gaussian Processes best recover the ground‑truth uncertainty, while most methods align more closely with posterior variance and miss predictor bias. The study also explores the entanglement of estimated uncertainties and the impact of modeling choices, providing practical guidance and releasing 13 semi‑synthetic datasets for further validation.
arXiv:2602. 08142v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Machine learning applications require fast and reliable per-sample uncertainty estimation.
arXiv:2607. 02206v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Predictions are increasingly used to guide high-stakes decisions, from treatment selection to policy making.
arXiv:2510. 25599v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Regression tasks, notably in safety-critical domains, require reliable uncertainty quantification, yet the literature remains largely classification-focused.
arXiv:2504. 18433v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Uncertainty quantification is crucial in machine learning, yet most (axiomatic) studies of uncertainty measures focus on classification, leaving a gap in regression settings with limited formal justification and evaluations.
arXiv:2507. 08150v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Accurate uncertainty quantification is critical for reliable predictive modeling.