Uplift modeling, crucial for estimating individual treatment effects (ITE), faces dual challenges: flexibly leveraging inter-group similarity to enhance discriminative power and debiasing under unobserved confounding scenarios. In this paper, we propose the Cross-Head Attention Uplift Network (CHAUN) and Robust Adversarial Inverse Propensity Score (RA-IPS) method to address these limitations.
arXiv:2606. 27114v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Uplift modeling, crucial for estimating individual treatment effects (ITE), faces dual challenges: flexibly leveraging inter-group similarity to enhance discriminative power and debiasing under unobserved confounding scenarios.
The paper introduces PUID, a Personalized Unobserved-Confounding-aware Interaction Deconfounder, designed to mitigate hidden confounding in recommender systems without relying on costly randomized controlled trials. PUID estimates user-item level sensitivity bounds using an entropy-based method that gauges the strength of hidden confounding from the mutual information between observed features and exposure status. An adversarial optimization strategy and a benchmark-guided variant (BPUID) further enhance robustness and predictive accuracy, and experiments on three real-world datasets show consistent outperformance over state-of-the-art baselines.
arXiv:2606. 03332v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Probabilistic models are typically trained using task-agnostic objectives like log-loss, which can lead to significant errors in downstream estimation.
The paper introduces a method for learning risk scores that remain reliable even when historical data contain unobserved confounders. By treating propensity weights as uncertain and applying sensitivity analysis with Wasserstein distributionally robust optimization, the authors formulate a robust learning problem solvable via an exponential cone program. Experiments on semi‑synthetic UCI data show the approach improves calibration by up to 29.2% over traditional benchmarks and 11.1% over the state of the art, without harming other performance metrics.
arXiv:2609.17238v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: High-dimensional data create challenges for causal effect estimation because identifying the covariates needed for correct model specification become...
Probabilistic models are typically trained using task-agnostic objectives like log-loss, which can lead to significant errors in downstream estimation. This disconnect is especially critical in Inverse Probability Weighting (IPW) for causal inference, where propensity score errors near $0$ and $1$ often lead to high bias and variance.
arXiv:2602. 12972v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: In online advertising, marketing interventions such as coupons introduce significant confounding bias into Click-Through Rate (CTR) prediction.
arXiv:2604. 23904v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Synthetic tabular data are often evaluated by distributional similarity, privacy distance, or train-on-synthetic-test-on-real predictive performance, but these criteria do not ensure validity for causal inference.
arXiv:2505. 17961v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Causal inference typically assumes centralized access to individual-level data.
arXiv:2603. 20775v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: In personalized marketing, uplift models estimate the incremental effect of an intervention by modeling how customer behavior would change under alternative treatments using counterfactual analysis.
arXiv:2510. 12957v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We treat the internals of generative models as mechanistic objects rather than black boxes.
The paper introduces a control‑variable framework for deep neural networks to mitigate omitted variable bias, particularly shortcut learning where covariates like demographics influence predictions. It refits the final layer of a pre‑trained network using cross‑fitting with ridge penalisation, orthogonalises covariate effects, and marginalises predictions over covariate distributions to achieve unbiased, interpretable results. Experiments on simulated images and neuroimaging data show consistent estimation of true effects and performance close to models trained on unconfounded data.