Probabilistic models are typically trained using task-agnostic objectives like log-loss, which can lead to significant errors in downstream estimation. This disconnect is especially critical in Inverse Probability Weighting (IPW) for causal inference, where propensity score errors near $0$ and $1$ often lead to high bias and variance.
arXiv:2605. 15133v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Causal inference, estimating causal effects from observational data, is a fundamental tool in many disciplines.
By Christopher Stith, Medha Barath, Vahid Balazadeh, Jesse C. Cresswell, Rahul G. Krishnan
arXiv:2606. 27114v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Uplift modeling, crucial for estimating individual treatment effects (ITE), faces dual challenges: flexibly leveraging inter-group similarity to enhance discriminative power and debiasing under unobserved confounding scenarios.
By Haoran Zhang, Chuanpu Li, Yuxin Fu, Bin Tong, Guan Wang, Bo Zheng, Feng Zhou
Uplift modeling, crucial for estimating individual treatment effects (ITE), faces dual challenges: flexibly leveraging inter-group similarity to enhance discriminative power and debiasing under unobserved confounding scenarios. In this paper, we propose the Cross-Head Attention Uplift Network (CHAUN) and Robust Adversarial Inverse Propensity Score (RA-IPS) method to address these limitations.
arXiv:2606. 07399v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Generative models for counterfactual outcomes have great potential to support decision-making under complex interventions, but existing approaches are limited by unstable estimation, poor generalization across environments, and bias from nuisance model misspecification.
By Raphael C Kim, Jingsen Zhu, Ramin Zabih, Michele Santacatterina
arXiv:2607. 21806v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Predictive machine learning (ML) models are increasingly used to aid human decision-makers across various high-risk domains such as healthcare and criminal justice.
By Jonathan Zhang, Erik Skalnes, Jacob Chen, Michael Oberst