arXiv Machine Learning July 31, 2026 By Aakash Bhagat, Shashank Choudhary

Psych-ECA: A Reproducible Semi-Synthetic Benchmark for Synthetic Control Arms in Longitudinal Psychiatry

Read the original on arXiv Machine Learning →

arXiv:2607. 27224v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: External and synthetic control arms (ECAs) are entering psychiatric drug development, but the field lacks a benchmark that evaluates the properties regulators care about: not only how accurately a method reconstructs untreated trajectories, but whether its uncertainty is calibrated, whether it is robust to the informative observation times common in mental-health records (sicker patients are seen more often), and what false-positive rate it induces in go/no-go trial decisions.

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