This paper presents Transformer and Performer models for forecasting surface vessel trajectories in confined waters using AIS position data. It introduces positional heat maps generated via Kernel Density Estimation and encoded with a CNN to incorporate local vessel movement patterns. The models, trained with quantile loss, achieve superior performance over prior work and provide prediction intervals essential for collision avoidance.
arXiv:2608. 10256v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Accurate vessel trajectory prediction is critical for maritime safety and anomaly detection, yet existing models often struggle with geographic bias and navigational realism.
arXiv:2606. 06311v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Accurate vessel trajectory prediction is essential for safe and efficient maritime operations, enabling collision avoidance and supporting route optimization.
arXiv:2608. 19580v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Vessel trajectory prediction is critical for maritime safety and accident prevention.
arXiv:2606. 15240v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Vessel trajectory prediction is important for intelligent shipping, maritime surveillance, and navigation safety.
arXiv:2606. 15240v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Accurate vessel trajectory forecasting is essential for maritime situational awareness, navigation safety, traffic management, and autonomous navigation.
arXiv:2607. 27418v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Long-term ship trajectory prediction is a fundamental capability for maritime safety and autonomous navigation.
arXiv:2603. 28067v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Digital testing has emerged as a key paradigm for the development and verification of autonomous maritime navigation systems, yet the availability of realistic and diverse safety-critical encounter scenarios remains limited.
arXiv:2607. 18887v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Vessel trajectory prediction in complex maritime environments is essential for traffic management, collision warning, route planning, and autonomous navigation.
arXiv:2608. 14349v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We present a training-free method for multi-modal trajectory prediction that achieves comparable accuracy to a 57M-parameter transformer while requiring no GPU and zero learned parameters.
M3-Former is a multimodal transformer framework that uses large language models to encode vessel static attributes and navigational intent as semantic priors for long‑term trajectory prediction. It builds a unified multimodal representation space, aligns static semantic information with dynamic trajectory features via self‑attention, and employs a dual‑granularity Mixture‑of‑Experts architecture to capture both global route planning and fine‑grained maneuvering behaviors. A Steering‑Weighted Cross‑Entropy loss further improves accuracy on sparse turning events, and experiments on a Danish AIS dataset show consistent improvements over state‑of‑the‑art baselines, reducing ADE and FDE by up to 5.1% in 4‑hour predictions.
arXiv:2506. 22174v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: The transport industry has recently shown significant interest in unmanned surface vehicles (USVs), specifically for port and inland waterway transport.
arXiv:2512. 03606v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Accurate marine wind forecasts are essential for safe navigation, ship routing, and energy operations, yet they remain challenging because observations over the ocean are sparse, heterogeneous, and temporally variable.