arXiv AI

Uncertainty Estimation using Variance-Gated Distributions

arXiv:2509. 08846v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Evaluation of per-sample uncertainty quantification from neural networks is essential for decision-making involving high-risk applications.

arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 7

An Axiomatic Assessment of Entropy- and Variance-based Uncertainty Quantification in Regression

arXiv:2504. 18433v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Uncertainty quantification is crucial in machine learning, yet most (axiomatic) studies of uncertainty measures focus on classification, leaving a gap in regression settings with limited formal justification and evaluations.

By Christopher B\"ulte, Yusuf Sale, Timo L\"ohr, Paul Hofman, Gitta Kutyniok, Eyke H\"ullermeier
arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 9

Optimal Conformal Prediction under Epistemic Uncertainty

arXiv:2505. 19033v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Conformal prediction (CP) is a widely used frequentist framework to quantify uncertainty by constructing prediction sets with user-specified marginal coverage guarantees.

By Alireza Javanmardi, Soroush H. Zargarbashi, Santo M. A. R. Thies, Willem Waegeman, Aleksandar Bojchevski, Eyke H\"ullermeier