arXiv:2602. 08142v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Machine learning applications require fast and reliable per-sample uncertainty estimation.
arXiv:2509. 08846v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Evaluation of per-sample uncertainty quantification from neural networks is essential for decision-making involving high-risk applications.
arXiv:2607. 06776v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We introduce an efficient Bayesian deep ensemble method for predictive regression designed to enhance interpretability while maintaining competitive predictive performance and computational efficiency.
We introduce an efficient Bayesian deep ensemble method for predictive regression designed to enhance interpretability while maintaining competitive predictive performance and computational efficiency. Our method combines the statistical rigor of Bayesian inference with the scalability of deep ensembles, providing calibrated uncertainty estimates that enable its use not only for standalone prediction but also as a component within broader learning systems.
arXiv:2607. 28248v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: The deployment of deep neural networks in safety-critical domains demands reliable estimates of predictive confidence, yet conventional architectures lack principled uncertainty quantification.
arXiv:2602. 08470v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Credal predictors are models that are aware of epistemic uncertainty and produce a convex set of probabilistic predictions.
arXiv:2608. 05995v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Reliable uncertainty estimates are critical in safety-sensitive applications, where understanding the sources of predictive uncertainty is essential.
arXiv:2505. 02743v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Real-world data contains aleatoric uncertainty - irreducible noise arising from imperfect measurements or from incomplete knowledge about the data generation process.
arXiv:2507. 08150v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Accurate uncertainty quantification is critical for reliable predictive modeling.
The paper introduces a ground‑truth framework for disentangling uncertainty into epistemic and aleatoric components using sample‑conditional pointwise posterior risk. It evaluates current methods, finding that Spectral‑normalized Neural Gaussian Processes and Variational Latent Gaussian Processes best recover the ground‑truth uncertainty, while most methods align more closely with posterior variance and miss predictor bias. The study also explores the entanglement of estimated uncertainties and the impact of modeling choices, providing practical guidance and releasing 13 semi‑synthetic datasets for further validation.
arXiv:2607. 23860v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Deep ensembles provide the most reliable uncertainty estimates in deep learning, but their cost grows linearly with the number of members.
arXiv:2606. 10777v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Uncertainty estimation is critical for deploying machine learning models in high-stakes settings.
arXiv:2602. 11219v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Predictive uncertainty is commonly decomposed into epistemic and aleatoric components, but standard decompositions often produce strongly correlated estimates because both quantities are derived from the same predictive distribution.