arXiv Machine Learning

AeroCast: Probabilistic 3D Trajectory Prediction for Non-Cooperative Aerial Obstacles via Transformer-MDN Architecture

arXiv:2606. 25122v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Autonomous aerial vehicles operating in shared airspace must predict the future positions of non-cooperative obstacles to plan evasive maneuvers before a collision becomes unavoidable.

arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 11

M3-Former: Multimodal Transformer with Mixture-of-Experts for Long-Term Vessel Trajectory Prediction

M3-Former is a multimodal transformer framework that uses large language models to encode vessel static attributes and navigational intent as semantic priors for long‑term trajectory prediction. It builds a unified multimodal representation space, aligns static semantic information with dynamic trajectory features via self‑attention, and employs a dual‑granularity Mixture‑of‑Experts architecture to capture both global route planning and fine‑grained maneuvering behaviors. A Steering‑Weighted Cross‑Entropy loss further improves accuracy on sparse turning events, and experiments on a Danish AIS dataset show consistent improvements over state‑of‑the‑art baselines, reducing ADE and FDE by up to 5.1% in 4‑hour predictions.

By Wenzhe Jin, Haina Tang
arXiv AI
3d ago

DiffWAM: A Fast and Efficient Navigation World Action Model

DiffWAM is a geometry‑conditioned navigation world‑action model that transforms predictive features from a frozen video foundation model into continuous camera trajectories, eliminating the need for future‑video synthesis and multi‑frame reconstruction during deployment. Its Grid‑Motion module preserves spatial‑temporal motion associations, while Latent2Pose grounds them with first‑frame geometry to recover metrically meaningful 3D motion. The system, complemented by FastDreamer for asynchronous trajectory handoff, achieves a trajectory RMSE of 0.3492 m and a 74.40 % endpoint success rate on the DiffWAM‑1000 benchmark, with real‑world tests showing complex UAV behaviors and an onboard implementation reaching 1.08 s latency on NVIDIA Jetson AGX Thor.

By Mo Zhu, Yuze Wu, Xijie Huang, Xiao Cui, Fei Gao, Xin Zhou
arXiv AI
Sep 17

Risk-Aware World Modeling with Flow-Guided Occupancy Evolution for Selective Trajectory Planning in Automated Driving

RiskWorld is a risk‑aware world modeling framework that forecasts shared occupancy and selectively replaces planned trajectories in automated driving. It fuses spatial risk fields, temporal actor context, and visual bird’s‑eye‑view features, using flow‑guided evolution to transport occupancy and signed residuals to correct it. In open‑loop planning on nuScenes, RiskWorld achieves the lowest collision rate over a 3‑second horizon and the second‑best average L2 error, running at 11.5 FPS on a single NVIDIA RTX 4090.

By Rongxiang Zeng, Linsen Cai, Jiafu Zhang, Yijie Zhong, Yide Tao, Shuai Wang, Nan Zheng, Hai L. Vu, Alvaro Garcia Hernandez, Yongqi Dong
arXiv Machine Learning
1d ago

Variational Streaming Flow: Probabilistic Forecasting in Physical Time

Variational Streaming Flow (VSF) extends the efficient Streaming Flow (SF) framework by learning a latent distribution conditioned on system dynamics, enabling probabilistic forecasting in physical time. Unlike SF’s deterministic velocity field, VSF produces multiple plausible future trajectories, improving predictive accuracy and distributional fidelity across deterministic and stochastic dynamical systems. The method supports long‑horizon rollouts over 1,000 steps, handles bifurcating dynamics, and can be integrated as a plug‑and‑play predictor into Joint‑Embedding Predictive Architecture (JEPA) world models to enhance navigation, motion planning, and manipulation tasks.

By Hans Hao-Hsun Hsu, Minseon Gwak, Soon Hoe Lim, Pan Li, N. Benjamin Erichson
arXiv Computer Vision
Sep 11

MC-DeTra: Motion-Consistent Joint Object Detection and Socially-Aware Trajectory Forecasting in Bird's-Eye-View Images

MC-DeTra is a reimplementation of the DeTra model that jointly performs object detection and socially-aware trajectory forecasting in bird's-eye-view images. It introduces motion-consistency mechanisms that add supervision from each actor’s past motion, surrounding traffic occupancy, and a consistency constraint aligning predicted heading with motion direction. The added losses are train‑only and inference‑safe, improving dynamic trajectory forecasting on the Waymo Open Dataset while maintaining or enhancing detection accuracy.

By Vladislav Diuzhev, Dmitry Yudin