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arXiv Machine Learning By Nathan Le, Magdalini Paschali, Arogya Koirala, Andrew Johnston, Zhongnan Fang, David B. Larson, Akshay S. Chaudhari, Camila Gonzalez

Improving Calibration of Black-Box Radiology AI Using Test-Time Augmentation

Read the original on arXiv Machine Learning →

The paper presents DualTTA, a model‑agnostic framework that improves the calibration of black‑box radiology AI systems by applying clinically grounded test‑time augmentations (geometric and physics‑inspired 3D CT perturbations) and learning probability‑level aggregation strategies. Without accessing model internals or training data, DualTTA achieved the best overall calibration across pulmonary embolism and intracranial hemorrhage detection tasks, reducing Expected Calibration Error by 54% and 43% respectively. It also outperformed traditional uncertainty estimation methods that require internal model access, such as Temperature Scaling, MC Dropout, and Deep Ensembles.

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