The paper presents Laxmi, a retrained version of the AIFS weather model that uses satellite-based precipitation observations instead of ERA5 reanalysis data. Laxmi achieves a 19% improvement in global probabilistic accuracy, reduces drizzle overprediction by 33%, and boosts the 95th percentile Brier skill score by 57%. In a case study of 10 Indian tropical storms, Laxmi accurately forecasted 150 mm event-total precipitation in 7 events, outperforming both the original AIFS and the leading physical model IFS.
By Julian F. Schmitt, Bertrand Delorme, Robert C. King, Yashica Patodia, Tapio Schneider, Aditi Sheshadri, Ravi Jain
arXiv:2606. 10642v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Machine learning weather prediction (MLWP) models have achieved impressive forecasting performance at a small fraction of the computational costs required for traditional physics-based methods.
By Emma Kasteleyn, Timo Maier, Axel Lauer, Veronika Eyring, Pierre Gentine, Ana Lucic
arXiv:2607. 21080v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Long-horizon weather forecasting is a fundamental challenge in atmospheric science, for which autoregressive Deep Learning Weather Prediction (DLWP) has emerged as the primary paradigm.
By Yun-Ye Cai, Hsuan-Tien Lin
EvoBench is a diagnostic benchmark framework designed to reveal where and when machine‑learning models for environmental variables fail, rather than relying on a single average accuracy score. It tracks model performance over time and across spatial extrapolation, highlighting issues such as non‑stationarity, poor performance at unmonitored sites, and under‑prediction of rare events like floods. In a case study on daily streamflow prediction across 9,000 U.S. basins, EvoBench shows that no model dominates all scenarios and that targeted fixes can mitigate identified weaknesses.
By Yiming Sun, Yuan Zhang, Qi Cheng, Yingda Fan, Runlong Yu, Yiqun Xie, Xiaowei Jia
arXiv:2510. 02415v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Machine learning models for the global atmosphere that are capable of producing stable, multi-year simulations of Earth's climate have recently been developed.
By Bosong Zhang, Timothy M. Merlis
arXiv:2607. 20778v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Weather forecasting foundation models (FMs) are increasingly fine-tuned to predict air quality, offering fast global pollution forecasts at lower computational cost than conventional chemical transport models.
By Jason Y. Hu, Ivan Higuera-Mendieta, Patrick Obin Sturm, Makoto M. Kelp