Earth System World Model for What-If Simulations: A Case Study for Terrestrial Ecosystems

The paper introduces an action‑conditioned world‑modeling framework that turns Earth‑system simulator trajectories into training data for controllable state‑transition learning. By pretraining on naturally observed state changes as implicit action supervision and using masked response learning, the model can infer unobserved variables and learn coupled system dependencies. Experiments on ecosystem dynamics across six global regions demonstrate that the model maintains long‑horizon emulation accuracy while enabling structural interventions and coherent responses in coupled ecosystem‑cycle variables.

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