Counterfactual Marginalisation: Framework for Evaluating Robustness to Nuisance Variables
Read the original on arXiv Machine Learning →The paper introduces counterfactual (CF) marginalisation, a test‑time evaluation method that assesses how robust classification models are to nuisance variables such as age or sex. By using a CF image generator to intervene on these parent variables, the method creates counterfactual versions of each test image and averages predictions over a chosen intervention distribution, yielding intervention‑aware predictions that filter out demographic effects while retaining patient‑specific latent information. These predictions are then used to define metrics for CF risk, calibration, stability, and worst‑case sensitivity, demonstrating the framework’s usefulness for quantitative robustness evaluation.
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