arXiv AI

AeroChem: Closed-loop Physics-Informed State Space Modeling for Long-term Chemically-Reactive Air Quality Forecasting--Extended Version

arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 24

Toward Mechanistic Interpretability of an AI Foundation Model Fine-Tuned for Atmospheric Chemistry

arXiv:2607. 20778v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Weather forecasting foundation models (FMs) are increasingly fine-tuned to predict air quality, offering fast global pollution forecasts at lower computational cost than conventional chemical transport models.

By Jason Y. Hu, Ivan Higuera-Mendieta, Patrick Obin Sturm, Makoto M. Kelp
arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 21

Learning to Advect: A Neural Semi-Lagrangian Architecture for Weather Forecasting

arXiv:2601.21151v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Machine-learning approaches to weather forecasting often employ a monolithic architecture in which distinct physical mechanisms, such as advection,...

By Carlos A. Pereira, St\'ephane Gaudreault, Valentin Dallerit, Christopher Subich, Shoyon Panday, Siqi Wei, Sasa Zhang, Siddharth Rout, Eldad Haber, Raymond J. Spiteri, David Millard
arXiv Machine Learning
Oct 8

Artificial intelligence pathways from weather to climate

arXiv:2610.09770v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Deep learning has made rapid advances in weather forecasting: autoregressive models trained on atmospheric reanalyses now rival dynamical models acro...

By Tom Beucler, J. David Neelin, Hui Su, Shivanshi Asthana, Chris Bretherton, Will Chapman, Costa Christopoulos, Spencer K. Clark, Aditya Grover, Ignacio Lopez-Gomez, Tapio Schneider, Adam Subel, Oliver Watt-Meyer
arXiv Statistics ML
Oct 26

Batched NN 4D-Var: a performant hybrid model framework for the Integrated Forecasting System

Hybrid forecasting systems that combine machine learning with numerical weather prediction are explored using a neural‑network representation of model error within the Integrated Forecasting System. The study introduces a targeted neural‑network 4D‑Var approach that estimates only network parameters and a batched extension that processes assimilation windows in random order, averaging parameter updates across multiple windows. Experiments show that while sequential online learning improves forecasts during training, it fails to generalise, whereas the batched formulation consistently enhances out‑of‑sample forecast skill and improves convergence with larger batch sizes.

By Alban Farchi, Marcin Chrust, Massimo Bonavita, Marc Bocquet, Wei Pan, Patrick Laloyaux
arXiv AI
Aug 11

AirFlow: Context Preserving and Multi-Rate State Modeling for Air Quality Forecasting

arXiv:2608. 09775v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Accurate air quality forecasting is essential for public health and urban environmental management, but remains challenging because pollutant channels differ in periodicity and distribution drift, while their concentration trajectories contain both multi-scale dependencies and rapid changes.

By Fan Yang, Nan Chen, Yijie Dong, Yuchen Zhang, Wei Zhang
arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 9

ForcingDAS: Unified and Robust Data Assimilation via Diffusion Forcing

arXiv:2605. 14285v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Data assimilation (DA) estimates the state of an evolving dynamical system from noisy, partial observations, and is widely used in scientific simulation as well as weather and climate science.

By Yixuan Jia, Siyi Chen, Yida Pan, Xiao Li, Lianghe Shi, Chanyong Jung, Haijie Yuan, Ismail Alkhouri, Yue Cynthia Wu, Saiprasad Ravishankar, Jeffrey A Fessler, Qing Qu
arXiv AI
Sep 18

Physical knowledge on historical data matters more than enforcing physical constraints on the forecast

The paper introduces a Physics Informed Recurrent Neural Network (PIRNN) that simultaneously predicts target time series and unobservable intermediate physical variables, enhancing robustness and interpretability. It adapts to any physical model with multiple equations and variables, demonstrated on groundwater level predictions using the Gardenia model. Experiments on twelve real‑world datasets show PIRNN outperforming several neural network baselines and the Gardenia model, with an ablation study confirming the value of physical knowledge.

By Etienne Lehembre (CA, LIFO), Pascal Audigane (BRGM), Vincent Nguyen (LIFO), Christel Vrain (LIFO, CA), Thi-Bich-Hanh Dao (LIFO, CA)