arXiv Machine Learning

FDN: Interpretable Spatiotemporal Forecasting with Future Decomposition Networks

arXiv:2606. 25201v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Spatiotemporal systems comprise a collection of spatially distributed yet interdependent entities each generating unique dynamic signals.

arXiv AI
Sep 18

Physical knowledge on historical data matters more than enforcing physical constraints on the forecast

The paper introduces a Physics Informed Recurrent Neural Network (PIRNN) that simultaneously predicts target time series and unobservable intermediate physical variables, enhancing robustness and interpretability. It adapts to any physical model with multiple equations and variables, demonstrated on groundwater level predictions using the Gardenia model. Experiments on twelve real‑world datasets show PIRNN outperforming several neural network baselines and the Gardenia model, with an ablation study confirming the value of physical knowledge.

By Etienne Lehembre (CA, LIFO), Pascal Audigane (BRGM), Vincent Nguyen (LIFO), Christel Vrain (LIFO, CA), Thi-Bich-Hanh Dao (LIFO, CA)
arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 22

Gaussian Process Decorrelation for Spatiotemporal Deep Learning-Based Snow Water Equivalent Prediction

The paper proposes a method for predicting future snow water equivalent (SWE) across the Western United States by first removing spatial correlations using a Gaussian Process-based linear transformation, then training a long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network on the decorrelated data. This separation of spatial and temporal components improves predictive accuracy compared to baseline models. Additionally, the authors incorporate conformal prediction to provide distribution‑free uncertainty estimates for SWE forecasts.

By Colin Fenster, Adrienne Marshall, Soutir Bandyopadhyay, Daniel McKenzie
arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 31

Bridging AI and Energy Forecasting: An Autonomous Workflow with Customized Toolkit

arXiv:2307. 07191v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Energy forecasting is crucial for the power grid, but fundamentally different from general time series analysis: it highly relies on covariates like meteorological factors, and its goals must align with actual power grid operations, such as risk assessment and system reliability.

By Zhixian Wang, Leandro Von Krannichfeldt, Qingsong Wen, Chaoli Zhang, Liang Sun, Shirui Pan, Yi Wang