arXiv Machine Learning

A Critical Audit of Spatiotemporal Forecasting Benchmark Datasets and Baselines

arXiv AI
Aug 10

Seeking SOTA: Time-Series Forecasting Must Adopt Taxonomy-Specific Evaluation to Dispel Illusory Gains

arXiv:2603. 15506v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We argue that the current practice of evaluating AI/ML time-series forecasting models, predominantly on benchmarks characterized by strong, persistent periodicities and seasonalities, obscures real progress by overlooking the performance of efficient classical methods.

By Raeid Saqur, Christoph Bergmeir, Blanka Horvath, Daniel Schmidt, Frank Rudzicz, Terry Lyons
arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 4

RIDE: An Open Dataset and Benchmark for Train Delay Prediction

arXiv:2606. 05070v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Train delay prediction is an important problem for both passengers and railway operators, yet progress in the field remains difficult to assess due to the lack of standardized datasets, prediction targets, and evaluation protocols.

By Cl\'ement Elliker, Mathis Le Bail, Cl\'ement Mantoux, Jesse Read, Sonia Vanier
Hugging Face Trending Papers
Aug 7

When GNNs Fail: Quantifying and Overcoming Temporal Correlation Volatility in Time Series

Modeling multivariate time series by representing them as graphs, where individual series act as nodes and pairwise temporal corre- lations serve as edges, has gained significant traction. Recent advances in Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have demonstrated strong perfor- mance by assuming a static graph topology and aggregating information from neighboring series.

arXiv AI
Sep 7

Predicting Spatiotemporal Mobile Sensing-Based PM2.5 Concentrations Using Low-Rank Adapted Spatially Attentive Graph Neural Network

This study presents a new mobile‑sensing dataset from Surat, India, capturing PM2.5 concentrations along with meteorological and land‑use variables. The authors model the data as a graph using two node‑definition strategies—uniform segmentation and DBSCAN clustering—and introduce a Spatially Attentive Graph Neural Network (SA‑GNN) that combines cluster‑specific GRUs with a Graph Attention Network to forecast fine‑grained, short‑term PM2.5 levels. SA‑GNN outperforms traditional LSTM, RNN, GRU, and ANN baselines, achieving an R² of 0.95, RMSE of 6.8, and MAE of 4.2 µg/m³ on the dataset.

By Om Chiddarwar, Priyanka Mandal, Praveen Kumar Chandaliya, Shriniwas Arkatkar