arXiv Machine Learning By Xu Zheng, Wei Cheng, Zhuomin Chen, Mo Sha, Jingchao Ni, Dongsheng Luo

Information Bottleneck Learning for Faithful Time Series Forecasting Explanations

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arXiv:2607. 28124v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: As forecasts increasingly drive decisions in fields such as energy, transportation, and healthcare, understanding the historical data behind these predictions has become as crucial as the predictions themselves.

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arXiv Machine Learning
Aug 27

NVExplain: Explaining Time Series Forecasting with Latent Trajectory Analysis and Structure-Preserving Surrogates

NVExplain is a model‑agnostic framework that explains time‑series forecasting by attributing each forecast horizon to temporally relevant historical lags. It models forecasting as a latent trajectory, introduces semantic flow to track information evolution, and aggregates this into a lag‑horizon attribution matrix. The method also generates structure‑preserving perturbations and fits sparse local surrogates to produce human‑readable, temporally coherent explanations, and demonstrates competitive faithfulness and stability across benchmark datasets.

By Muyan Anna Li, Manikandan Ravikiran, Aditi Gautam