arXiv:2609.24419v1 Announce Type: cross
Abstract: Current experimental scientists increasingly rely on simulation-based inference (SBI) to invert complex models with intractable likelihoods. A primar...
By Luben M. C. Cabezas, Pedro L. C. Rodrigues, Rafael Izbicki
arXiv:2509. 23385v5 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Simulation-based inference (SBI) is transforming experimental sciences by enabling parameter estimation in complex non-linear models from simulated data.
By Pierre-Louis Ruhlmann, Michael Arbel, Florence Forbes, Pedro L. C. Rodrigues
arXiv:2608. 06206v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Conformal prediction endows arbitrary black-box predictors with finite-sample, distribution-free marginal coverage, yet marginal validity can hide severe covariate-specific miscalibration, while exact distribution-free conditional coverage is finite-sample unattainable.
By Anton Conrad, Rustam Isaev, Denis Belomestny, Eric Moulines, Sergey Samsonov
arXiv:2609.39712v1 Announce Type: cross
Abstract: We consider simulation-based Bayesian inference (SBI) for the parameters of models with intractable likelihoods but tractable forward simulation. Bui...
By Umberto Picchini
arXiv:2607. 04236v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Bayes-assisted conformal prediction combines the strengths of Bayesian modelling with exact, distribution-free frequentist coverage guarantees.
By Kianoosh Ashouritaklimi, Stefano Cortinovis, Fran\c{c}ois Caron
The paper extends Neural Posterior Estimation (NPE) to handle simulators whose parameter spaces contain both discrete and continuous dimensions. It introduces an inference network that factorizes the joint posterior into discrete and continuous components, using an autoregressive classifier for the discrete part and a generative model for the continuous part, trained jointly with a single simulation-based objective. A diagnostic tool for assessing calibration of the mixed posterior is also proposed, and the method is shown to produce accurate, calibrated posteriors on toy and real scientific simulators.
By Jan Boelts, Cornelius Schr\"oder, Jonas Beck, Jakob H. Macke, Michael Deistler, Daniel Gedon