arXiv:2509. 23385v5 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Simulation-based inference (SBI) is transforming experimental sciences by enabling parameter estimation in complex non-linear models from simulated data.
By Pierre-Louis Ruhlmann, Michael Arbel, Florence Forbes, Pedro L. C. Rodrigues
Hierarchical data is ubiquitous in the empirical sciences and is most commonly analyzed with generalized linear mixed-effects models (GLMMs). Bayesian inference for GLMMs yields calibrated uncertainty...
arXiv:2606. 30372v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Quantitative research across the social and behavioral sciences depends on human subject experiments that are expensive, slow, and subject to sampling bias.
By Haobo Yang
arXiv:2609.24422v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Hierarchical data is ubiquitous in the empirical sciences and is most commonly analyzed with generalized linear mixed-effects models (GLMMs). Bayesian...
By Alex Kipnis, Marcel Binz, Eric Schulz
The paper introduces OTROPE, a likelihood‑free method for off‑policy evaluation of large language models (LLMs) that uses optimal transport to align labeled samples from a behavior model with unlabeled samples from a target model in a semantic space. OTROPE corrects human‑labeled residuals with proxy predictors, achieving a doubly robust evaluation without requiring behavior‑policy modeling or density‑ratio estimation. The authors provide theoretical guarantees for consistency and convergence, and demonstrate through synthetic and real LLM tasks that OTROPE outperforms existing baselines and can elevate weaker evaluators to match or exceed stronger ones.
By Liner Xiang, Wenbo Zhang, Hengrui Cai
The paper introduces Nous, a framework that separates learning, calibration, and revision certification for belief‑based agent memory. It shows that learning and certifying useful memory decisions can require quadratically fewer records than source calibration, and provides finite‑sample certificates for policy improvement without needing to recover source reliability. Experiments on MiniGrid environments demonstrate that the new certificate reliably accepts improvements over incumbents, outperforming earlier methods.
By Pranav Singh