The paper extends the e‑closure principle for multiple testing to general state and action spaces and to arbitrarily indexed risk families. It introduces a recertification method that reallocates unused risk budget, enlarging certifying e‑values while preserving validity and yielding less conservative decisions. Applications include improved conformal risk control and enhanced false discovery rate procedures, with empirical gains shown on CIFAR‑100 and simulations.
arXiv:2610.35821v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Statistical procedures often control expected loss at a prescribed level while leaving part of their risk budget unused. Building on the e-value repr...
arXiv:2609.38112v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Many applications of black-box predictive models require controlling task-relevant error rates, such as missed lesion pixels in segmentation or misse...
arXiv:2606. 29054v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) deployed for structured generation (NER, JSON extraction, QA, and classification) lack formal reliability guarantees, and standard heuristic abstention policies miss user-specified risk targets by 7.
arXiv:2610.22930v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Artificial-intelligence (AI) policies are increasingly used to make consequential decisions in medicine, finance, education, and public services, yet...
arXiv:2607. 02206v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Predictions are increasingly used to guide high-stakes decisions, from treatment selection to policy making.
arXiv:2604. 11305v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Conformal selection (CS) uses calibration data to identify test inputs whose unobserved outcomes are likely to satisfy a pre-specified minimal quality requirement, while controlling the false discovery rate (FDR).
arXiv:2606. 08517v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Selective predictors answer on confident inputs and abstain elsewhere; deploying one safely needs a single finite-sample certificate that simultaneously upper-bounds the selected risk, lower-bounds the acceptance probability $\pacc$ above a floor $\pmin$, and lower-bounds the deployment utility.
arXiv:2605. 14953v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We address the problem of conformal selection, where an agent must select a minimal subset of options to ensure that at least one ``success'' is identified with a pre-specified target probability $\phi$.
arXiv:2608. 13209v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Many operational decisions are sequences of interventions under a cumulative resource limit, such as a maintenance schedule within a crew-hour budget.
Revelation Control studies how to price interventions that reveal hidden state only when the revealed distinctions can alter a consequential decision, while separately accounting for any useful progress the intervention itself creates. The authors develop a framework for learning systems that defines decision‑sufficient revelation, revelation depth, and a cost‑adjusted factorization criterion, and they provide a target‑independent protocol for model‑specific instantiation. Experiments on Qwen2.5‑7B and Mistral‑7B‑v0.3 show that deeper future‑learning probes have positive decision value and that productive reuse yields strict equal‑compute utility advantages, supporting a structural transfer of the decision theory and evaluation protocol across architectures.
arXiv:2608. 04677v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Algorithmic recourse seeks to help individuals reverse unfavorable automated decisions by recommending actionable changes that achieve a desired outcome.
arXiv:2609.27179v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We study the challenging problem of distribution-free sequential changepoint detection for independent observations with unknown and \emph{co...