OutageDiT is a generative foundation model that produces seven‑day power‑outage trajectories at quarter‑hour resolution, trained on nationwide outage and weather data. It uses a condition encoder to process historical context and future covariates, and a shallow flow decoder to generate full trajectories, enabling point forecasting, uncertainty quantification, and conditional event simulation. The model outperforms strong baselines on forecasting benchmarks and can transfer zero‑shot to unseen regions, linking outage simulation to operational planning under uncertainty.
By Yunqin Zhu, Feng Qiu, Yao Xie
arXiv:2608.24665v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Power outage prediction models are increasingly used in assessments of climate-driven infrastructure risk, yet current evaluation practices obscure whe...
By Yamil Essus, Ranga Raju Vatsavai, Benjamin Rachunok
arXiv:2406. 14399v4 Announce Type: replace Abstract: The development of Time-Series Forecasting (TSF) models is often constrained by the lack of comprehensive datasets, especially in Global Station Weather Forecasting (GSWF), where existing datasets are small, temporally short, and spatially sparse.
By Tao Han, Zhibin Wen, Zhenghao Chen, Dazhao Du, Song Guo, Lei Bai
arXiv:2609.21382v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Operators of service-based systems act on forecasts of how a running execution will continue, and such a forecast is actionable only if its reliability...
By Jiaxin Yuan, Daniela Grigori, Han van der Aa
arXiv:2609.13345v1 Announce Type: cross
Abstract: Probabilistic forecasting is central to decision-making under uncertainty, yet its methodological landscape has become increasingly fragmented across...
By Donia Besher, Rajdeep Pathak, Madhurima Panja, Tanujit Chakraborty
This study evaluates large language models (LLMs) for predicting weather‑related forced outage risk in a distribution grid using a zero‑shot approach without labeled training data. The task is framed as binary severity classification over 3h, 6h, and 12h horizons, leveraging six years of outage records and high‑resolution weather data from central Texas. Four zero‑shot LLMs are compared to two supervised classifiers under two input settings—current weather observations and forecast data—showing that supervised models lead on macro‑F1 and precision, while newer LLMs achieve competitive scores and offer complementary strengths in reasoning and geographic scalability.
By Christos Petridis, Zoran Obradovic, Mladen Kezunovic
arXiv:2610.31959v1 Announce Type: cross
Abstract: Short-term building load forecasting remains challenging because load patterns can change rapidly with weather and operating conditions. Data-driven...
By Shiqiao Zhou, Huanbo Lyu, Holger Sch\"oner, Zipeng Wu, Jessica Deuschel, Freya Wentzel, IAG Wilson, Shuo Wang
AsyncCouple-Flow introduces a new framework for multi‑modal spatio‑temporal forecasting that tackles three key challenges: differing sampling rates, missing modalities, and autoregressive error accumulation. It employs a Modality‑Aware Token Sparsification module to produce equal‑length sequences, an Asynchronous Cross‑Modal Coupling Graph to fuse data under arbitrary asynchrony and missingness, and a Flow‑Matching Forecasting Head that models multi‑step prediction as a conditional ODE. Experiments on weather and traffic datasets demonstrate that the method outperforms state‑of‑the‑art baselines and remains robust even when up to two modalities are missing.
By Zhixiang Wu, Yining Liu, Bo Zhao, Szu-Yu Chen, Huiran Duan, Chu Lin, Chuanguang Yang
UniWind is a wind power forecasting framework that blends physics-informed generation priors with data-driven state-aware corrections. It constructs a site‑calibrated physical prior using a monotone warp and a shared power curve, then refines this prior with a latent state encoder and a state‑aware power corrector guided by pseudo‑labels. Experiments on 24 real‑world datasets show that UniWind achieves strong forecasting accuracy, robustness, and generalization across full‑shot, cross‑farm zero‑shot, and cross‑region zero‑shot scenarios.
By Ronghui Xu, Tongxin Wu, Guozhen Zhang, Yihan Li, Chenjuan Guo, Bin Yang, Yong Li
UniGIO is a generative framework that models global in‑situ weather dynamics directly from incomplete GIO data, unifying forecasting, imputation, and generation across arbitrary missing ratios. It employs an Observation Mixer, Event Aligner, Adaptive Temporal Mixer, and a Mixture‑of‑Experts structure to capture station‑level complementarity, temporal dependencies, and extreme events, refining outputs with a Local Refiner. Experiments on the Weather‑5K dataset show state‑of‑the‑art performance, improving accuracy, fidelity, and extreme event capture by 11%, 12%, and 5% respectively.
By Songru Yang, Zili Liu, Tao Han, Ben Fei, Lei Bai, Chang Liu, Zhengxia Zou, Xiangyang Ji, Wanli Ouyang, Zhenwei Shi
The paper introduces a new diffusion-based approach for probabilistic weather forecasting that incorporates auxiliary conditional denoising tasks. By predicting future states from both clean and corrupted contexts, the model reduces ambiguity and learns conditional distributions across noise levels using a proper scoring rule. Experiments demonstrate improved one‑step forecasting, especially at longer horizons, and better calibration in high‑dimensional global weather scenarios.
By Joonhyeong Park, Giung Nam, Hyungi Lee, Kyunghyun Cho, Byoungwoo Park, Juho Lee
The study evaluates how forecast lead time influences the effectiveness of outage predictions for crew deployment using AI weather models GraphCast and FourCastNet. It finds that the ability to capture outage burden decreases with longer lead times, with a notable drop between three and five days. Early deployment with all requested crews outperforms late deployment with fewer crews, and the study also examines the impact of antecedent land surface predictors and calibration of prediction intervals for tropical cyclone events.
By Mohammad Kian Golkar, Luciano Alves de Oliveira, Mohamad Alipour