arXiv:2406. 14399v4 Announce Type: replace Abstract: The development of Time-Series Forecasting (TSF) models is often constrained by the lack of comprehensive datasets, especially in Global Station Weather Forecasting (GSWF), where existing datasets are small, temporally short, and spatially sparse.
arXiv:2607. 13101v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Global Station Weather Forecasting (GSWF) is pivotal for localized and extreme weather prediction over key regions.
Aries is a proprietary medium‑range weather prediction model built with a SwinTransformer architecture by InCommodities. Trained on ERA5 reanalysis data at 0.25° resolution, it forecasts 74 prognostic and 11 diagnostic atmospheric variables. In out‑of‑sample tests using 2025 ECMWF Analysis initializations, Aries achieves lower RMSE than ECMWF HRES and AIFS for 10‑metre wind speed up to four days ahead, and comparable RMSE to AIFS for 2‑metre temperature.
WeatherNext 3 is a new AI‑driven global weather model that improves both spatial and temporal resolution by generating hourly forecasts at 0.1° resolution, matching the best physics‑based models. It incorporates low‑latency geostationary satellite data and learns to predict satellite‑derived precipitation, tropical cyclones, and station observations, enabling 2 m temperature and dewpoint predictions anywhere and anytime. By directly using raw observations instead of relying solely on analysis data, WeatherNext 3 sets a new state‑of‑the‑art for probabilistic medium‑range forecasting skill.
The paper presents Laxmi, a retrained version of the AIFS weather model that uses satellite-based precipitation observations instead of ERA5 reanalysis data. Laxmi achieves a 19% improvement in global probabilistic accuracy, reduces drizzle overprediction by 33%, and boosts the 95th percentile Brier skill score by 57%. In a case study of 10 Indian tropical storms, Laxmi accurately forecasted 150 mm event-total precipitation in 7 events, outperforming both the original AIFS and the leading physical model IFS.
arXiv:2604. 22328v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Driven by the transition towards a climate-neutral energy system, accurate energy time series forecasting is critical for planning and operations.
Tianmu-TC is a physics‑constraints generative AI framework designed for global tropical cyclone forecasting. Trained on Western North Pacific data, it produces controllable outputs with reduced uncertainty, outperforming both deterministic and ensemble meteorological AI models as well as the ECMWF NWP system across global ocean basins. The model also demonstrates strong performance in challenging scenarios such as data sparsity, anomaly tracks, rapid intensification, and weakening, while maintaining significantly lower computational cost.
arXiv:2609.24444v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Accurate, reliable, and deployable wind power forecasting is critical for power system dispatch, renewable energy integration, and electricity market o...
arXiv:2606. 10642v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Machine learning weather prediction (MLWP) models have achieved impressive forecasting performance at a small fraction of the computational costs required for traditional physics-based methods.
arXiv:2606. 08630v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Global wind power capacity, especially in China, is booming, with new farms spanning diverse terrains and climates.
arXiv:2607. 17095v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Accurate short-term wind power forecasting is essential for grid stability and operational planning, yet remains challenging due to the complex interactions between atmospheric conditions and turbine dynamics.
arXiv:2608. 06241v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Existing machine-learning weather forecasting models rely on predetermined and fixed autoregressive timesteps.
We present Varda-single-1.0, a medium-range data-driven weather prediction system built for the Alpine domain. It provides hourly deterministic regional forecasts on a mesh of 1 km resolution and glob...