arXiv Machine Learning By Songru Yang, Zili Liu, Tao Han, Ben Fei, Lei Bai, Chang Liu, Zhengxia Zou, Xiangyang Ji, Wanli Ouyang, Zhenwei Shi

UniGIO: Unified Generative Global In-situ Weather Modeling from Spatiotemporal Incomplete Observations

Read the original on arXiv Machine Learning →

UniGIO is a generative framework that models global in‑situ weather dynamics directly from incomplete GIO data, unifying forecasting, imputation, and generation across arbitrary missing ratios. It employs an Observation Mixer, Event Aligner, Adaptive Temporal Mixer, and a Mixture‑of‑Experts structure to capture station‑level complementarity, temporal dependencies, and extreme events, refining outputs with a Local Refiner. Experiments on the Weather‑5K dataset show state‑of‑the‑art performance, improving accuracy, fidelity, and extreme event capture by 11%, 12%, and 5% respectively.

Machine-generated by The Flow from the publisher's headline and feed description — not written or checked by a human. The full article lives at arXiv Machine Learning.

arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 4

WeatherNext 3: Increasing resolution and performance of global weather models with raw observations

WeatherNext 3 is a new AI‑driven global weather model that improves both spatial and temporal resolution by generating hourly forecasts at 0.1° resolution, matching the best physics‑based models. It incorporates low‑latency geostationary satellite data and learns to predict satellite‑derived precipitation, tropical cyclones, and station observations, enabling 2 m temperature and dewpoint predictions anywhere and anytime. By directly using raw observations instead of relying solely on analysis data, WeatherNext 3 sets a new state‑of‑the‑art for probabilistic medium‑range forecasting skill.

By Stephan Rasp, Boris Babenko, Dominic Masters, Andrew El-Kadi, Samier Merchant, Guy Shalev, Ilan Price, Fred Zyda, Remi Lam, Sasha Shysheya, Matthew Willson, Stratis Markou, Shreya Agrawal, Suhani Vora, Mohammed Alewi Hassen, Sunny Mak, Tom R. Andersson, Megan Bela, Akib Uddin, Nofar Peled Levi, Ben Gaiarin, Ferran Alet, Aaron Bell, Peter Battaglia, Alvaro Sanchez-Gonzalez
arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 18

Benchmarking Physics-Informed Time-Series Models for Operational Global Station Weather Forecasting

arXiv:2406. 14399v4 Announce Type: replace Abstract: The development of Time-Series Forecasting (TSF) models is often constrained by the lack of comprehensive datasets, especially in Global Station Weather Forecasting (GSWF), where existing datasets are small, temporally short, and spatially sparse.

By Tao Han, Zhibin Wen, Zhenghao Chen, Dazhao Du, Song Guo, Lei Bai
arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 16

AsyncCouple-Flow: Asynchronous Cross-Modal Coupling and Flow Matching for Spatio-Temporal Forecasting

AsyncCouple-Flow introduces a new framework for multi‑modal spatio‑temporal forecasting that tackles three key challenges: differing sampling rates, missing modalities, and autoregressive error accumulation. It employs a Modality‑Aware Token Sparsification module to produce equal‑length sequences, an Asynchronous Cross‑Modal Coupling Graph to fuse data under arbitrary asynchrony and missingness, and a Flow‑Matching Forecasting Head that models multi‑step prediction as a conditional ODE. Experiments on weather and traffic datasets demonstrate that the method outperforms state‑of‑the‑art baselines and remains robust even when up to two modalities are missing.

By Zhixiang Wu, Yining Liu, Bo Zhao, Szu-Yu Chen, Huiran Duan, Chu Lin, Chuanguang Yang
arXiv Machine Learning
Aug 13

Earth observation embeddings are effective sub-grid descriptors for probabilistic weather downscaling

arXiv:2608. 12271v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Global weather reanalyses and forecasts resolve the evolving atmospheric state on coarse grids, but site-specific applications require predictions at arbitrary locations where near-surface conditions also depend on unresolved terrain and land-surface properties.

By Pedro Sousa (Department of Computer Science, University of Cambridge), Will Tebbutt (Department of Engineering, University of Cambridge), Sadiq Jaffer (Department of Computer Science, University of Cambridge), Robin Young (Department of Computer Science, University of Cambridge), Anil Madhavapeddy (Department of Computer Science, University of Cambridge), Richard E. Turner (Department of Engineering, University of Cambridge)