arXiv:2606. 25808v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We propose a predict-optimize-explain framework that uses gradient-based sample generation to interpret various portfolio models by identifying macroeconomic conditions that induce specified portfolio outcomes.
arXiv:2605. 27887v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) have shown strong performance across diverse financial tasks, yet portfolio management (PM), a critical financial decision-making task, remains poorly benchmarked.
arXiv:2605.28853v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Portfolio optimization in real-world financial markets is notoriously difficult due to non-stationarity, noisy data, and high transaction cos...
arXiv:2606. 03704v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Financial decision-making tasks such as stock recommendation and portfolio allocation typically estimate future return and risk and then select trades or allocations for an investor, and the chosen optimization objective often determines realized performance.
The paper explores tabular deep learning for equity signal generation, training five model classes on daily data from about 300 large‑cap US stocks over eleven years. By using Bayesian optimisation that targets trading performance across three distinct market regimes, the authors achieve regime‑robust hyperparameter selection, yielding out‑of‑sample signal precision above random and a Hybrid ensemble (XGBoost + TabNet) with an annualised return of 51.26% and a Sharpe ratio of 2.44. The study also finds that alternative data adds limited value beyond technical and fundamental features, and that the ensemble’s outperformance is driven by stock selection rather than market exposure.
arXiv:2608. 27076v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Algorithmic trading now represents a market exceeding $20 billion, where even marginal gains in signal robustness can translate into economically significant returns.
arXiv:2605. 18147v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Predictive models play a pivotal role in credit risk management, guiding critical decisions through accurate estimation of default probabilities and losses.
arXiv:2606. 24950v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Financial decision-making is contextual: forecasting prices, valuing companies, and assessing event exposure weigh price history, accounting fundamentals, macroeconomic regime, and contemporaneous text.
arXiv:2602. 03395v4 Announce Type: replace Abstract: While deep learning has revolutionized financial forecasting through sophisticated architectures, the design of the supervision signal itself is rarely scrutinized.
The study investigates whether adding inference-time reasoning to large language models (LLMs) improves trading performance. Using a controlled experiment across DeepSeek, GPT, and Gemini models, the authors varied reasoning effort while keeping other variables constant and evaluated over a full year of U.S. equities under three input conditions. Results show that additional reasoning does not reliably increase net portfolio returns and can even lead to nonmonotonic performance and unstable outcomes.
arXiv:2608.23252v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: As Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) shifts toward diverse portfolio generation, it is stymied by two critical bottlenecks: flawed measurement of...
arXiv:2607. 00581v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Sparse tangent portfolio optimization aims to learn an interpretable, low-cardinality portfolio in the tangency direction of the mean-variance frontier.
arXiv:2607. 20533v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Portfolio construction under the Black-Litterman model requires investors to specify views on asset returns alongside explicit uncertainty estimates -- a process that remains largely subjective and difficult to scale.