arXiv:2608. 03259v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: As time-series foundation models have emerged, the need for benchmarks that can evaluate their forecasting ability in meaningful ways has become increasingly important.
By Jaehoon Lee, Jun Seo, Seunghan Lee, Tae Yoon Lim, Dongwan Kang, Hwanil Choi, Minjae Kim, Sungdong Yoo, Junhyeok Kang, Sangjun Han, Soonyoung Lee, Wonbin Ahn
arXiv:2609.36914v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Post-training has been shown to significantly improve language models' performance on tasks with verifiable outcomes, including mathematical reasoning,...
By Jiacheng Guo, Suozhi Huang, Shuzhen Li, Yunlong Gao, Zerui Cheng, Jason Ge, Shushu Liang, Zihao Li, Hao Lu, Ming Yin, Shilong Liu, Jiashuo Liu, Xu Kuang, Mengdi Wang
Large language models (LLMs) can synthesize financial narratives but may express high confidence when evidence is sparse, stale, or contradictory. This failure is especially consequential in forecasting, where filings, news, prices, volume, and technical signals can disagree.
arXiv:2608.03259v3 Announce Type: replace-cross
Abstract: Time-series foundation models (TSFMs) are increasingly evaluated on broad benchmarks that apply uniform conventional forecast evaluation metr...
By Jaehoon Lee, Jun Seo, Seunghan Lee, Tae Yoon Lim, Dongwan Kang, Hwanil Choi, Minjae Kim, Sungdong Yoo, Junhyeok Kang, Sangjun Han, Soonyoung Lee, Hao Ni, Srijan Sood, Stefan Zohren, Chanyeol Choi, Yongjae Lee, Zhangyang Wang, Lukasz Szpruch, Benjamin Bowring, Wonbin Ahn
Hedge-Bench is a benchmark comprising 92 real-world environments derived from hedge fund analysts' reasoning traces, designed to test AI agents’ ability to forecast future events from incomplete information. Agents are evaluated on joint success—correct forecasts with over 60% research coverage—across 11 frontier models, achieving rates between 2.54% and 31.52%. Training Muse‑Glimmer with GRPO on 165 environments improves coverage on held‑out tasks and demonstrates generalization to out‑of‑distribution evaluations.
By Mahesh Ramesh, Eric Cho, Alice Lu, Shawn Huang, Baiqing Lyu
arXiv:2607. 16229v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used as components of agentic systems that observe, plan, and act.
By Rishab Ghosh, Vinay Devarakonda