arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 25
Efficient Analytic Uncertainty Quantification for Multi-Modal Regression
arXiv:2606. 25188v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Efficient uncertainty quantification (UQ) is essential for trustworthy large-scale learning.
Ribbon: Scalable Approximation and Robust Uncertainty Quantification
arXiv:2606. 27269v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Reliably quantifying predictive uncertainty is difficult for complex, high-dimensional, or misspecified models.
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arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 11
PCS-UQ: Uncertainty Quantification via the Predictability-Computability-Stability Framework
arXiv:2505. 08784v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: As machine learning (ML) enters high-stakes domains, trustworthy uncertainty quantification (UQ) is essential for safety.
arXiv Statistics ML
Aug 24
Doubly robust inference via calibration
arXiv:2411.02771v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Doubly robust estimators are widely used for estimating average treatment effects and other linear summaries of regression functions. While c...
arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 1
Information-Based Calibration of Uncertainty Quantification in Product-of-Experts Gaussian Process Models
arXiv:2608.29349v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Gaussian process (GP) regression with a single global GP (GP-glo) incurs cubic computational cost, limiting scalability to large datasets. Product-of-e...
arXiv Machine Learning
Aug 4
Nonparametric Distribution Regression Re-calibration
arXiv:2602. 13362v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: A key challenge in probabilistic regression is ensuring that predictive distributions accurately reflect true empirical uncertainty.
arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 2
Robust Predictive Uncertainty and Double Descent in Contaminated Bayesian Random Features
arXiv:2602. 19126v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We propose a robust Bayesian formulation of random feature (RF) regression that accounts explicitly for prior and likelihood misspecification via Huber-style contamination sets.
arXiv Machine Learning
Aug 7
A Unified Risk View of Uncertainty: Posterior Risk for Disentanglement and Evaluation Beyond Proxies
arXiv:2608. 05995v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Reliable uncertainty estimates are critical in safety-sensitive applications, where understanding the sources of predictive uncertainty is essential.
arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 4
Variance-Gated Ensembles: An Epistemic-Aware Framework for Uncertainty Estimation
arXiv:2602. 08142v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Machine learning applications require fast and reliable per-sample uncertainty estimation.
arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 30
BayesAME: Bayesian Active Model Evaluation
arXiv:2607. 27023v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Evaluating large generative models across benchmarks is time-consuming and computationally expensive.
arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 17
Neural Architectures for Amortized Bayesian Inference: Statistical Foundations and Empirical Assessments
arXiv:2601. 07944v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Since the turn of the century, approximate Bayesian inference has steadily evolved as new computational techniques have been incorporated to handle increasingly complex, large-scale predictive problems.
arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 4
Flow Matching Calibration for Simulation-Based Inference under Model Misspecification
arXiv:2509. 23385v5 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Simulation-based inference (SBI) is transforming experimental sciences by enabling parameter estimation in complex non-linear models from simulated data.
arXiv Machine Learning
Aug 12
Hierarchical Empirical-Bayes Naive Bayes: Minimax Smoothing and Calibration with AODE Extension
arXiv:2608. 11162v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The Naive Bayes (NB) classifier remains a standard choice for categorical data, yet its widely used smoothing rules, such as Laplace, Lidstone, Krichevsky-Trofimov, and the $m$-estimate, all prescribe a fixed smoothing strength that ignores feature cardinality, sample size, and class imbalance, inducing a non-vanishing bias on modern high-cardinality tabular data.