The paper introduces a unified framework for measuring divergences between conditional distributions using kernel embeddings, termed conditional maximum mean discrepancy (CMMD). It defines a family of CMMD metrics—CMMD_0, CMMD_1, and CMMD_2—each based on different RKHS embeddings, and generalizes them to a level‑s CMMD with clear assumptions and operator‑based smoothing connections. Additionally, the authors present a novel doubly robust estimator for CMMD and demonstrate through experiments that the metric captures complex conditional dependencies for statistical testing.
By Peter Moskvichev, Siu Lun Chau, Dino Sejdinovic
arXiv:2606. 25188v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Efficient uncertainty quantification (UQ) is essential for trustworthy large-scale learning.
By Kun Jin, James Harrison, Jiawei Li, Sihan Liu, Jiayi Liu, Randolph Linderman, Yuening Li, Arnab Bhadury, Sourabh Prakash Bansod, Liang Liu, Jasper Snoek
arXiv:2606. 29925v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: As deep learning models are increasingly deployed in high-stakes applications, providing well-calibrated uncertainty estimates has become as critical as achieving high predictive accuracy.
By Han Zhou, Teodora Popordanoska, Matthew Blaschko
The paper introduces V-ECE, a variational estimator for general Expected Calibration Errors (ECE) that avoids binning and works with any convex divergence, including Lp distances. By using prediction‑dependent proper scores and a residual‑fitted temperature scaling via gradient boosting, V‑ECE provides a lower‑bound estimate of true calibration error. Experiments on semi‑synthetic benchmarks show V‑ECE outperforms existing binary and multiclass estimators, with additional theoretical insights on bias and confidence estimation.
By Eug\`ene Berta, Sacha Braun, Francis Bach, Michael I. Jordan, David Holzm\"uller
arXiv:2411.02771v3 Announce Type: replace-cross
Abstract: Doubly robust estimators are widely used for estimating average treatment effects and other linear summaries of regression functions. While c...
By Lars van der Laan, Alex Luedtke, Marco Carone
arXiv:2608. 05995v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Reliable uncertainty estimates are critical in safety-sensitive applications, where understanding the sources of predictive uncertainty is essential.
By Frieder Wizgall, Georg Tirpitz, Moritz Seiler, Kerstin Ritter, B\'alint Mucs\'anyi
As deep learning models are increasingly deployed in high-stakes applications, providing well-calibrated uncertainty estimates has become as critical as achieving high predictive accuracy. While Kernel Density Estimation (KDE) has emerged as a smooth and continuous alternative to traditional binning for quantifying miscalibration, its reliability is heavily dependent on the choice of the kernel bandwidth.
arXiv:2408. 08998v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Recent advances in machine learning have significantly improved prediction accuracy in various applications.
By Yan Sun, Pratik Chaudhari, Ian J. Barnett, Edgar Dobriban
arXiv:2603.05575v2 Announce Type: replace-cross
Abstract: We study prediction-powered conditional inference in the setting where labeled data are scarce, unlabeled covariates are abundant, and a blac...
By Yang Sui, Jin Zhou, Hua Zhou, Xiaowu Dai
arXiv:2510. 25599v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Regression tasks, notably in safety-critical domains, require reliable uncertainty quantification, yet the literature remains largely classification-focused.
By Christopher B\"ulte, Yusuf Sale, Gitta Kutyniok, Eyke H\"ullermeier
arXiv:2607. 07671v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Probabilistic circuits (PCs) can model complex joint distributions while supporting exact and efficient computation of many inference queries.
By Adrian Ciotinga, Yeming Dai, YooJung Choi
arXiv:2610.22564v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Data-driven approaches often face ambiguity in datasets due to sensor or target noise, insufficient information, and noise in the input data. While bes...
By Nina Maria Gottschling, Jakob Gawlikowski, Michele Caprio