arXiv Machine Learning

A distribution-free certification framework for trustworthy crash-severity prediction

The paper introduces a distribution‑free certification layer that can be applied to any crash‑severity prediction model without modifying the model itself. It provides guarantees for ordinal outcomes, per‑class validity, transfer of coverage to unobserved severities, and one‑sided certificates under deployment shift, all grounded in a functional of the true data law. The framework is evaluated on 5.2 million Texas records, demonstrating a model‑independent lower bound on set width for vulnerable road users and is released as an open‑source package with theorem‑level tests.

arXiv AI
Sep 1

Benchmark Contamination: A Taxonomy Organized by Defeated Mitigation

The paper introduces a new taxonomy for benchmark contamination that categorizes leakage by the mitigation it defeats—direct, derivative, temporal, distributional, and acquired—covering both training‑time and evaluation‑time scenarios. It proposes a four‑field disclosure protocol to record contamination status alongside benchmark scores, and provides a JSON schema, validator, and examples. An empirical study of 41 documents using a pre‑registered instrument shows limited reporting of contamination types and variable reliability, highlighting gaps in current disclosure practices.

By Johanna Angulo, V\'ictor Yeste, Hector Espinos-Morato
arXiv AI
Sep 2

Counterfactual Fragility Certificates: Exposing High-Confidence Brittleness under Structured Evidence Failure

The paper introduces Counterfactual Fragility Certificates (CFC), a model‑agnostic audit protocol that maps each prediction to an evidence‑failure trajectory, summarizing it with metrics such as greedy flip budget, margin‑collapse area, degradation thresholds, and fragility dominance score. CFC is shown to identify brittle high‑confidence predictions on seven tabular benchmarks with an AUROC of 0.915, outperforming existing scalar scores by up to +0.405. The method remains effective across various perturbation and review‑budget scenarios, and can also inform fragility‑aware regularization and temperature correction.

By Filippo Cenacchi, Longbing Cao, Runze Yang
arXiv AI
Aug 24

Prediction certification cannot replace explanation certification: a competence envelope for trustworthy AI under compound stress

The paper argues that prediction‑based certifications—such as accuracy, calibration, and conformal coverage—are insufficient to guarantee trustworthy AI. It proves a separation theorem showing that a model can appear reliable under all prediction‑side certificates yet differ arbitrarily in explanation fidelity and deployment behaviour. The authors propose a competence envelope framework that combines both prediction and explanation certification to detect such hidden failures.

By Nataliya Shakhovska, Ivan Izonin, Stergios-Aristoteles Mitoulis
arXiv AI
Sep 3

When Can a Machine Trust a Statute? A Survival Certificate for Machine-Extracted Legal Logic

The paper investigates the reliability of machine‑parsed statutes by developing a passive survival certificate for the Duquenne‑Guigues implication basis of extracted legal contexts. It measures inter‑extractor disagreement, runs 1,000 Monte‑Carlo trials, and certifies an implication only when a one‑sided Wilson 95% lower bound on survival reaches 0.95, providing premise spans and minimal counterexamples. Applied to 29,365 Missouri sections and 502 Indian central‑Act sections, the method passes a held‑out gate for many statute families, yet a global error model shows that 93.2% of held‑out chapters fall below the informativeness floor, attributing this to calibration‑rate transfer rather than selection bias.

By Surya Saka
arXiv Machine Learning
2d ago

Available Guardrails: Certifying Selective Prediction across ML Systems

The paper introduces a method to certify selective prediction in machine learning systems by computing the availability of safety gates through exact-binomial inversion and dynamic programming. It demonstrates that a truth-informed planner can significantly improve mean coverage over naive approaches, and that reallocating error budgets further enhances coverage across diverse applications such as LLM tool‑calling, content moderation, lesion classification, and recommendation. The study highlights the importance of planning and finite‑sample estimation in ensuring reliable, granular deployment of selective predictors.

By Parivesh Priye, Yufeng Wang, Haibin Ling, Michael Chaykowsky
arXiv AI
6d ago

Pay Only for Disagreement: Certified No-Regression Verdicts for Model Updates with Matching Label-Complexity Bounds

The paper introduces DISCERN, a two-tier protocol for certifying that updates to production models do not increase risk. It first uses unlabeled data to detect benign updates based on disagreement rates, then selectively labels only disagreements through an anytime-valid confidence sequence. The method achieves finite-sample validity with label-complexity bounds of order ρ²/ε², demonstrating significant label savings and strong empirical performance across 14,000+ audit streams.

By Vishnu Bindu Balachandran