arXiv Machine Learning

proxymate: Diagnosis and Adjustment of Proxy Estimates for Reliable Inference

arXiv:2607. 24401v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Proxy outcomes (such as short-term behavioral signals, model predictions, or surrogate endpoints) are frequently used in place of primary outcomes that are too slow to mature, rare, or challenging to measure directly.

arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 31

Psych-ECA: A Reproducible Semi-Synthetic Benchmark for Synthetic Control Arms in Longitudinal Psychiatry

arXiv:2607. 27224v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: External and synthetic control arms (ECAs) are entering psychiatric drug development, but the field lacks a benchmark that evaluates the properties regulators care about: not only how accurately a method reconstructs untreated trajectories, but whether its uncertainty is calibrated, whether it is robust to the informative observation times common in mental-health records (sicker patients are seen more often), and what false-positive rate it induces in go/no-go trial decisions.

By Aakash Bhagat, Shashank Choudhary
arXiv Machine Learning
Aug 11

Demystifying Prediction Powered Inference

arXiv:2601. 20819v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Machine learning predictions are increasingly used to supplement incomplete or costly-to-measure outcomes in fields such as biomedical research, environmental science, and social science.

By Yilin Song, Dan M. Kluger, Harsh Parikh, Tian Gu