arXiv:2607. 24401v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Proxy outcomes (such as short-term behavioral signals, model predictions, or surrogate endpoints) are frequently used in place of primary outcomes that are too slow to mature, rare, or challenging to measure directly.
arXiv:2608. 13563v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Early-stage teams often lack users, time, and budget to run repeated UX studies, yet still need decision-oriented signals to iterate safely.
arXiv:2608. 07528v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Linear probes detect corrupted context in language models with near-perfect accuracy, yet this does not translate into reliable failure prediction.
arXiv:2607. 27224v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: External and synthetic control arms (ECAs) are entering psychiatric drug development, but the field lacks a benchmark that evaluates the properties regulators care about: not only how accurately a method reconstructs untreated trajectories, but whether its uncertainty is calibrated, whether it is robust to the informative observation times common in mental-health records (sicker patients are seen more often), and what false-positive rate it induces in go/no-go trial decisions.
The paper presents a layered framework for evaluating conversational AI by aligning offline proxy signals with online A/B experiment outcomes. It introduces a three‑step alignment chain—behavioral label to product outcome, classifier to candidate behavior, and offline signal to experiment effect—alongside an audit protocol that compares confidence intervals and rankings. In a real‑world deployment, the composite proxy achieved 81.1% F1 versus 34.3% for the raw classifier, correctly predicting direction on all 113 contrasts and enabling efficient prioritization of candidate models before costly online testing.
arXiv:2606. 27383v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used as research assistants, yet it remains unclear whether they can calibrate research takeaways to the strength and scope of the supporting evidence.
arXiv:2601. 20819v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Machine learning predictions are increasingly used to supplement incomplete or costly-to-measure outcomes in fields such as biomedical research, environmental science, and social science.
arXiv:2609.35815v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Researchers across academia increasingly base significance claims on LLM judge scores and small-sample AI evaluations. Yet without well-calibrated co...
arXiv:2609.24629v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: A/B testing requires large sample sizes, long timelines, and significant costs. When auxiliary predictions of experimental outcomes are available from...
The paper evaluates the robustness of automated fact‑checking systems by cross‑benchmarking nine models—including random baselines, fine‑tuned transformers, zero‑shot LLMs, and top AVeriTeC 2025 systems—across four datasets from scientific, open‑web, and climate domains. It finds that fine‑tuned models outperform zero‑shot LLMs on ClimateCheck, that system rankings vary strongly with domain and metric, and that replacing retrieved evidence with gold annotations boosts veracity accuracy by 14–22 points, underscoring retrieval as the main bottleneck. The authors provide code, pre‑processed datasets, and results to enable reproducible research.
The paper introduces RAISE, a diagnostic framework that tests whether a costly large language model (LLM) signal provides enough pre-call information to justify selective use. It identifies the failure mode of acquisition collapse, where an LLM appears useful overall but lacks actionable evidence for individual decisions. The authors demonstrate RAISE with Structured Hypothesis Embeddings (SHE) and evaluate it across multiple study designs, showing that predictable incremental benefit, rather than average lift, indicates recoverable selective value.
arXiv:2607. 08065v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: LLM-as-judge (Zheng et al.
Online A/B experiments are the decision standard for user engagement, but traffic and readout time limit how many conversational-AI changes can be tested. We ask whether an offline signal designed to...