Long-Horizon Forecasting of Complete Financial Statements with Forma
arXiv:2608. 11327v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Specialist training beats generalist scale when forecasting financial statements.
Specialist training beats generalist scale when forecasting financial statements. To our knowledge, no prior work jointly forecasts complete financial statements beyond one year, yet in a discounted-cash-flow valuation most firm value sits past that window.
arXiv:2608. 11327v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Specialist training beats generalist scale when forecasting financial statements.
arXiv:2606. 24950v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Financial decision-making is contextual: forecasting prices, valuing companies, and assessing event exposure weigh price history, accounting fundamentals, macroeconomic regime, and contemporaneous text.
The paper addresses look‑ahead bias in large language models (LLMs) used for financial prediction, which arises because LLMs are trained on long time‑series data. It proposes a low‑cost solution that adjusts the logits of a base model at inference time using two smaller, specialized models—one fine‑tuned to forget certain information and another to retain it. Experiments show that this method removes both verbatim and semantic knowledge, corrects biases, and outperforms previous approaches.
arXiv:2605. 03460v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Time series (TS) reasoning models (TSRMs) have shown promising capabilities in general domains, yet they consistently fail in the financial domain, which exhibits unique characteristics.
arXiv:2607. 28124v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: As forecasts increasingly drive decisions in fields such as energy, transportation, and healthcare, understanding the historical data behind these predictions has become as crucial as the predictions themselves.
arXiv:2605. 18147v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Predictive models play a pivotal role in credit risk management, guiding critical decisions through accurate estimation of default probabilities and losses.
arXiv:2609.36914v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Post-training has been shown to significantly improve language models' performance on tasks with verifiable outcomes, including mathematical reasoning,...
arXiv:2609.05905v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: LLM agents are increasingly used for live forecasting, where they retrieve up-to-date information and produce estimates for unresolved future events....
arXiv:2602. 03395v4 Announce Type: replace Abstract: While deep learning has revolutionized financial forecasting through sophisticated architectures, the design of the supervision signal itself is rarely scrutinized.
arXiv:2608. 03259v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: As time-series foundation models have emerged, the need for benchmarks that can evaluate their forecasting ability in meaningful ways has become increasingly important.
arXiv:2602. 02288v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Current time-series forecasting models are primarily based on transformer-style neural networks.
DualCast is a dual‑path language model that forecasts financial time‑series by combining a fast numerical forecaster with an optional text‑conditioned revision mechanism. The fast path trains only new financial‑token embeddings and output heads on a frozen Qwen3‑8B backbone, while the slow path uses a LoRA adapter to incorporate news and refine predictions. In zero‑shot tests across equities and energy prices at multiple time resolutions, the slow path achieves the lowest mean absolute percentage error in most settings, especially for longer horizons, and news ablations show additional gains in many markets.