arXiv:2608. 22277v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Deep learning surrogates for forecasting chaotic dynamical systems suffer from catastrophic error accumulation over long-term autoregressive rollouts.
arXiv:2608. 22277v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Deep learning surrogates have become powerful tools for simulating and forecasting complex dynamical systems, yet their utility remains limited by catastrophic error accumulation during long-term autoregressive rollouts.
arXiv:2505. 23863v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Understanding chaotic dynamics is a fundamental problem across scientific disciplines, including climate science, neuroscience, and fluid dynamics, yet direct experimentation and intervention in such systems are often infeasible.
The paper introduces a mechanism‑aware conditioning framework that uses a nudged coarse ensemble to capture local instability geometry in chaotic systems. By injecting ensemble covariance statistics via a small FiLM module, the authors enhance rare‑event emulation in both a low‑dimensional chaotic benchmark and a quasi‑geostrophic flow model, achieving significant improvements in exceedance‑frequency and tail‑density errors with limited data. The approach demonstrates that local instability information can be leveraged as a practical conditioning signal for data‑efficient emulation of extreme events.
Autoregressive transformers trained on limited trajectories of nonlinear dynamical systems can extrapolate to unseen parameter regimes, reproducing period-doubling cascades, chaotic dynamics, and attractor structures with high fidelity. In the logistic map, the model captures successive period doublings up to period 128, achieving a scaling ratio within $5 imes10^{-4}$ of the Feigenbaum constant. The study also shows how control‑parameter information is processed via attention, shaping the closed‑loop dynamics during training.
arXiv:2606. 05618v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Extreme events -- such as earthquakes and coronal mass ejections -- are common in many chaotic dynamical systems, yet are difficult to characterize and predict due to the subtle instability mechanisms that drive them.
The paper investigates why latent neural surrogate solvers, which compress physical system dynamics into a lower‑dimensional space, often fail during long‑horizon autoregressive rollouts. It demonstrates that training the latent representation only for reconstruction leads to instability, and proposes a set of training interventions—Koopman operator learning, Hamming noise injection, and multi‑step rollout fine‑tuning—that align the latent space with long‑horizon forecasting. These interventions reduce long‑rollout error by about 40 % and achieve accuracy comparable to full‑resolution models while using far fewer floating‑point operations and GPU memory, enabling stable extrapolation in mesoscale crystal‑plasticity simulations of high‑cycle fatigue.
arXiv:2608. 06107v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Machine learning offers a promising avenue to accelerate physical simulations by replacing computationally expensive traditional Partial Differential Equation (PDE) solvers with fast, differentiable surrogate models.
arXiv:2607. 21080v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Long-horizon weather forecasting is a fundamental challenge in atmospheric science, for which autoregressive Deep Learning Weather Prediction (DLWP) has emerged as the primary paradigm.
arXiv:2608. 15483v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Modern deep networks are trained through long update trajectories, yet their temporal organization remains less systematically characterized than architectures, losses, or optimizers.
The paper presents a probabilistic deep learning emulator—a ResNet‑inspired Conditional Variational Autoencoder—for the stochastic Holton–Mass model of stratospheric variability, which exhibits rare transitions between strong and weak polar vortex regimes. The emulator accurately reproduces short‑term dynamics, steady‑state distributions, regime persistence, rare transition rates, the committor function, and expected lead times. Analysis of the 32‑dimensional latent space via PCA reveals an unsupervised separation into four physically interpretable clusters that correspond to the two vortex regimes and their stable or transition‑prone states.
arXiv:2602. 23461v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Data assimilation (DA) for compressible flows with shocks is challenging because many classical DA methods generate spurious oscillations and nonphysical features near uncertain shocks.
arXiv:2605. 14285v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Data assimilation (DA) estimates the state of an evolving dynamical system from noisy, partial observations, and is widely used in scientific simulation as well as weather and climate science.