The paper presents a probabilistic deep learning emulator—a ResNet‑inspired Conditional Variational Autoencoder—for the stochastic Holton–Mass model of stratospheric variability, which exhibits rare transitions between strong and weak polar vortex regimes. The emulator accurately reproduces short‑term dynamics, steady‑state distributions, regime persistence, rare transition rates, the committor function, and expected lead times. Analysis of the 32‑dimensional latent space via PCA reveals an unsupervised separation into four physically interpretable clusters that correspond to the two vortex regimes and their stable or transition‑prone states.
arXiv:2602.23188v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We propose an efficient retraining strategy for a parameterized Reduced Order Model (ROM) that attains accuracy comparable to full retraining while...
The paper presents a lightweight retraining strategy for a parameterized Reduced Order Model (ROM) that achieves full‑model accuracy using only a fraction of the computational effort and sparse observations. The ROM architecture combines a Variational Autoencoder for dimensionality reduction with a transformer network that evolves latent states while accounting for the Reynolds number as an external control variable. By leveraging the probabilistic VAE, the method generates trajectory ensembles and uncertainty estimates, and adapts to out‑of‑sample parameters through sparse data assimilation with an ensemble Kalman filter, focusing retraining on the autoencoder to correct latent manifold distortions.
SimCast‑S2S is a generative latent‑diffusion model designed for probabilistic subseasonal‑to‑seasonal precipitation forecasting. It tackles three key challenges: it uses a diffusion pipeline to capture uncertainty, operates in a compact latent space to enable efficient large‑ensemble generation, and leverages transfer learning with low‑rank adaptation to train on limited reanalysis data after pretraining on climate simulations. The model outperforms deep‑learning baselines and competes with, or surpasses, operational systems such as the ECMWF‑S2S baseline without requiring extensive post‑processing.
SimCast‑S2S is a generative latent‑diffusion framework designed for probabilistic subseasonal‑to‑seasonal precipitation forecasting. It tackles three key challenges: it uses a diffusion‑based generative pipeline for uncertainty quantification, operates in a compact latent space learned by VAEs for efficient large‑ensemble generation, and employs transfer learning with LoRA to overcome limited training data. On reanalysis data, it outperforms deep‑learning baselines and competes with or surpasses state‑of‑the‑art operational systems such as ECMWF‑S2S.
arXiv:2601.21151v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Machine-learning approaches to weather forecasting often employ a monolithic architecture in which distinct physical mechanisms, such as advection,...
arXiv:2609.24882v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Hybrid AI-physics climate modeling aims to improve coarse (~100km-resolution) Earth system models by learning to parameterize subgrid processes from hi...
arXiv:2605. 05540v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Fast surrogate modeling for high-dimensional physical dynamics requires more than low short-term error: useful models must roll out efficiently while preserving the statistical structure of long trajectories.
arXiv:2506. 20771v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We propose a latent score-based generative AI framework for learning stochastic, non-local closure models and constitutive laws in nonlinear dynamical systems of computational mechanics.
arXiv:2607. 10285v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We study how unsupervised autoencoders trained on microscopic spin configurations from the Ising model learn macroscopic, theory-relevant variables underlying the data-generating process.
arXiv:2607. 11073v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Accurately representing atmospheric aerosol populations is essential for simulating aerosol-cloud interactions, radiative forcing, and ice nucleation, yet existing reduced schemes impose structural assumptions that limit their ability to capture composition diversity and mixing state.
arXiv:2607. 19147v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Data-driven methods have revolutionized ocean modeling, yet current approaches rely heavily on complete reanalysis datasets, imposing computational constraints and limiting model performance to that of the training data.
Stochastic-process models are, as a rule, far easier to simulate than to condition. Non-linear observations, non-Gaussian likelihoods, black-box information, and global constraints all induce intractable conditional laws, requiring bespoke, model-specific constructions.