arXiv Machine Learning

TRUST-SCF: Transformer-based Risk Understanding and Scoring for Transactional Supply Chain Finance

arXiv:2606. 08140v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Supply Chain Finance (SCF) and LendTech platforms need credit scoring systems that respond to evolving transaction behavior, repayment delays, and active exposure.

arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 16

Foundation Models for Credit Risk Prediction: A Game Changer?

arXiv:2605. 18147v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Predictive models play a pivotal role in credit risk management, guiding critical decisions through accurate estimation of default probabilities and losses.

By Bart Baesens, Andreas Goethals, Stefan Lessmann, Simon De Vos, Cristi\'an Bravo, David Martens, Victor Medina-Olivares, Christophe Mues, Maria Oskarsd\'ottir, Seppe vanden Broucke, Tony Van Gestel, Tim Verdonck, Wouter Verbeke
arXiv Machine Learning
Aug 3

Incorporating data drift to perform survival analysis on credit risk

arXiv:2601. 20533v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Survival analysis has become a standard approach for modelling time to default by time-varying covariates in credit risk.

By Jianwei Peng (Humboldt-Universit\"at zu Berlin), Stefan Lessmann (Humboldt-Universit\"at zu Berlin, Bucharest University of Economic Studies)
arXiv AI
Sep 15

Design of a Deep Learning Credit Risk Early Warning System Integrating Multi-source Heterogeneous Data

The paper presents a deep learning credit risk early warning system that fuses heterogeneous data sources, such as transaction behaviors and social networks, using deep neural networks and attention mechanisms. By extracting multidimensional features, the system establishes an early identification mechanism for corporate and individual credit risks. Testing shows that this approach improves the accuracy and timeliness of risk warnings compared to traditional rule‑based engines.

By LiYang Wang (Washington University in St. Louis), Zhen Zhong (Georgetown University), Zhen Tian (University of Glasgow), Keyu Chen (Wuyi University), Keyu Chen (Wuyi University)
arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 9

A Distributionally Robust Optimisation Approach to Fair Credit Scoring

arXiv:2402. 01811v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Credit scoring has been catalogued by the European Commission and the Executive Office of the US President as a high-risk classification task, in light of the potential harms of making loan approval decisions based on models that would be biased against certain groups.

By Pablo Casas, Huan Yu, Christophe Mues
arXiv Statistics ML
Aug 28

DTD-VAE: Disentangled Temporal Dependencies VAE for Credit Risk Prediction

The paper introduces DTD‑VAE, a Variational Autoencoder that disentangles temporal dependencies to better predict credit risk. It uses an autoregressive feature inference module to capture temporal patterns among latent variables and an element‑wise gating mechanism in the generative module to assign independent weights to each latent dimension, especially those relevant to credit risk. Experiments on six real‑world datasets show the model outperforms existing methods, improving ROC‑AUC by 3.2%–4.86% and Accuracy Ratio by 6.41%–9.71%.

By Xiaobo Guo, Lu-an Dong, Yanbo Wang, Peng Zhang, Cai Zhi, Youru Li