The paper introduces the Finance‑Aware Graph Spatio‑Temporal Network (FA‑GSTN) for forecasting realized volatility by treating the implied volatility surface as a dynamic graph. Nodes represent grid points on the surface, with edges capturing adaptive intra‑day spatial and explicit inter‑day temporal relationships, while finance‑aware node features (e.g., option Greeks) and a multi‑scale temporal smoothing gate address high‑frequency noise. Experiments on a large equity options dataset show FA‑GSTN achieves state‑of‑the‑art predictive accuracy (R² up to 0.473) and outperforms Vision Transformer baselines even with only one year of training data, demonstrating robustness during market stress.
By Chuanzhen Wang, Alice Zhang, Wei Chen, Michael Brown
arXiv:2608. 16098v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Multivariate time-series forecasting faces a structural dilemma: sharing one temporal predictor across variables is parameter-efficient but forces heterogeneous variables through an identical history-to-future map, whereas learning an independent predictor per variable restores flexibility at a cost that grows with the product of variable count, context length, and horizon.
By Xiachong Lin, Du Yin, Hao Xue, Wen Hu, Imran Razzak, Arian Prabowo, Matthew Amos, Flora D. Salim
arXiv:2608. 05742v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Multivariate time series forecasting presents unique challenges because future variables often co-evolve under shared system dynamics.
By Kuiye Ding, Yifan Hu, Hanchen Wang, Hao Xue
arXiv:2607. 09232v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Temporal knowledge graphs (TKGs) represent evolving relational systems, whose underlying data-generating processes often change over time.
By Konrad \"Ozdemir, Julia Gastinger, Lukas Kirchdorfer, Heiner Stuckenschmidt
arXiv:2603. 15802v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: In many time series forecasting settings, the target time series is accompanied by exogenous covariates, such as promotions and prices in retail demand; temperature in energy load; calendar and holiday indicators for traffic or sales; and grid load or fuel costs in electricity pricing.
By Andres Potapczynski, Ravi Kiran Selvam, Tatiana Konstantinova, Malcolm Wolff, Kin G. Olivares, Ruijun Ma, Michael W. Mahoney, Andrew Gordon Wilson, Boris N. Oreshkin, Dmitry Efimov
arXiv:2606. 03184v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Financial forecasting is difficult due to low signal-to-noise ratios, latent factors, heavy tails, regime shifts, and jumps.
By Jiaze Sun, Kelvin J. L. Koa, Ruiyang Ni, Yize Liu, Haonan Chen, Ke-Wei Huang
arXiv:2606. 13119v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Spatio-Temporal forecasting is crucial in diverse fields, such as transportation, climate, and energy.
By Lilan Peng, Yandi Liu, Qingren Yao, Chongshou Li, Tianrui Li
arXiv:2606. 13119v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Spatio-Temporal forecasting is crucial in diverse fields, such as transportation, climate, and energy.
By Lilan Peng, Yandi Liu, Qingren Yao, Chongshou Li, Tianrui Li
arXiv:2608.20980v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Graph neural networks (GNNs) are routinely employed for short-range forecasting on multivariate time series with a spatial graph structure. Despite the...
By Kenneth Martin, Simon Heilig, Asja Fischer, Michel F. C. Haddad, Adam M. Sykulski, Moshe Eliasof
arXiv:2606. 10868v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Long-horizon autoregressive forecasting of oscillatory physical signals, such as seismograms, gravitational-wave strain, and similar wavefields is limited by error accumulation: as a causal model is fed its own outputs over hundreds of steps, small per-step errors compound into phase drift that pointwise metrics fail to detect.
By Waleed Esmail, Stuart Russell, Jana Klinge, Alexander Kappes, Christine Thomas
arXiv:2605. 15690v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Accurate and efficient long-term multivariate time series forecasting requires capturing recurring temporal structure while keeping inference cheap across many variables and horizons.
By Qingyuan Yang, Dongyue Chen, Da Teng, Junhua Xiao, Jiaji Pan, Shizhuo Deng
Modeling multivariate time series by representing them as graphs, where individual series act as nodes and pairwise temporal corre- lations serve as edges, has gained significant traction. Recent advances in Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have demonstrated strong perfor- mance by assuming a static graph topology and aggregating information from neighboring series.