The paper introduces the Finance‑Aware Graph Spatio‑Temporal Network (FA‑GSTN) for forecasting realized volatility by treating the implied volatility surface as a dynamic graph. Nodes represent grid points on the surface, with edges capturing adaptive intra‑day spatial and explicit inter‑day temporal relationships, while finance‑aware node features (e.g., option Greeks) and a multi‑scale temporal smoothing gate address high‑frequency noise. Experiments on a large equity options dataset show FA‑GSTN achieves state‑of‑the‑art predictive accuracy (R² up to 0.473) and outperforms Vision Transformer baselines even with only one year of training data, demonstrating robustness during market stress.
arXiv:2606. 25811v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Commodity futures can be represented hierarchically, with underlying assets at the upper level and individual futures contracts at the lower level.
Modeling multivariate time series by representing them as graphs, where individual series act as nodes and pairwise temporal corre- lations serve as edges, has gained significant traction. Recent advances in Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have demonstrated strong perfor- mance by assuming a static graph topology and aggregating information from neighboring series.
The paper introduces role‑specific predictive geometries for forecasting nonstationary multivariate graph signals. It distinguishes long‑run equilibrium restoration (Long relations) from short‑run transient propagation (Short relations), applying directed Long relations to equilibrium coordinates and directed Short relations to lagged differences. Experiments show perfect recovery of planted relations and improved performance over a G‑VARMA baseline on several real‑world benchmarks.
arXiv:2608. 07333v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Modeling multivariate time series by representing them as graphs, where individual series act as nodes and pairwise temporal corre- lations serve as edges, has gained significant traction.
arXiv:2606. 03184v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Financial forecasting is difficult due to low signal-to-noise ratios, latent factors, heavy tails, regime shifts, and jumps.
arXiv:2602. 03981v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Credit exposure in Decentralized Finance (DeFi) is often implicit and token-mediated, creating a dense web of inter-protocol dependencies.
arXiv:2607. 12067v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Institutional equity holdings disclosed in SEC Form 13F filings provide a rich temporal record of portfolio decisions by large investment managers.
MoFE is a deep learning framework that combines Fourier Neural Operators with a Mixture-of-Experts architecture to forecast cryptocurrency prices. It models volatility as a mix of multi-frequency components—including fundamental growth, mining costs, halving events, and market sentiment—using adaptive FNO and convolutional experts. Experiments on Bitcoin data from 2020 to 2025 show MoFE outperforms existing models in short‑term horizons, reducing phase‑lag errors and improving directional accuracy and information coefficient, which translates into higher Sharpe ratios in simulated trading.
arXiv:2608. 12251v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Financial volatility is regime dependent, yet incorporating regime information into neural networks can also destabilize training.
The paper presents a Causal Graph‑Informed Temporal Convolutional Network (CG‑TCN) that fuses a learned causal graph with a temporal convolutional network to forecast retail electricity prices. By decomposing price series into multi‑resolution trends and discovering a causal graph over these components and key covariates, the model conditions its convolutions and attention on causal pathways. On ten years of Ohio residential contracts, CG‑TCN outperforms benchmarks, achieving MAEps of 3.08%, 3.82%, and 5.43% for one‑, ten‑, and fifteen‑step‑ahead forecasts, respectively.
arXiv:2606. 19138v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Neural Controlled Differential Equations (NCDE) provide a powerful continuous-time framework for forecasting time series, but standard graph-based extensions typically learn spatial structure purely from data, even in settings where a directed graph structure is known a priori.
arXiv:2606. 31804v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Accurate energy demand forecasting is essential for the reliable operation and planning of modern sustainable energy systems.