arXiv:2607. 04627v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Persona-Trained Monte Carlo (PTMC) estimates distributions of market-outcome functionals by repeatedly simulating limit-order-book interaction among $K$ neural policy bots whose behavioral personas are drawn from a learned heterogeneity distribution $\mathcal{P}$.
arXiv:2606. 30372v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Quantitative research across the social and behavioral sciences depends on human subject experiments that are expensive, slow, and subject to sampling bias.
arXiv:2606. 29556v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We propose Persona-Trained Monte Carlo (PTMC), a method for estimating distributions of market-outcome statistics by repeatedly simulating limit-order-book interaction among swarms of persona-conditioned neural-policy trading bots.
arXiv:2607. 08444v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: In this paper, we study quantile-based distributional reinforcement learning from the perspective of statistical efficiency.
We propose Persona-Trained Monte Carlo (PTMC), a method for estimating distributions of market-outcome statistics by repeatedly simulating limit-order-book interaction among swarms of persona-conditioned neural-policy trading bots. Each run instantiates many bots sharing one trained policy network but conditioned on heterogeneous, individually sampled persona parameters drawn from a learned trader-heterogeneity distribution; the bots interact in a continuous double auction, and the resulting price path is one Monte Carlo sample.
arXiv:2607. 18310v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Synthetic-population tools increasingly run every individual as an independent large language model (LLM) agent.
arXiv:2607. 11920v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Evaluating decisions made under uncertainty is hard when labeled outcomes are scarce, costly, or confounded with luck.
arXiv:2606. 19117v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Offline policy learning has received growing attention in causal inference.
arXiv:2607. 07967v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Diffusion-based policies have recently emerged as powerful policy parameterizations for reinforcement learning, representing state-conditioned action distributions as terminal laws of diffusion processes with parameterized drifts.
arXiv:2606. 08360v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Peer-referral recruitment systems such as respondent-driven sampling are critical for studying and intervening on hidden populations affected by infectious diseases.
arXiv:2602. 06014v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Thompson sampling (TS) is widely used for stochastic multi-armed bandits, yet its inferential properties under adaptive data collection are subtle.
arXiv:2607. 06879v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Best-arm identification is a canonical model for data-driven decision-making, but in many applications each reward observation is costly.
arXiv:2608. 14665v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The temperature that maximizes pass@$k$ is often low for a small sampling budget and higher for a large budget.