arXiv Machine Learning

Persona-Trained Monte Carlo: Estimating Market-Outcome Distributions via Swarms of Persona-Conditioned Neural Policy Bots in a Limit Order Book

arXiv:2606. 29556v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We propose Persona-Trained Monte Carlo (PTMC), a method for estimating distributions of market-outcome statistics by repeatedly simulating limit-order-book interaction among swarms of persona-conditioned neural-policy trading bots.

Hugging Face Trending Papers
Jun 28

Persona-Trained Monte Carlo: Estimating Market-Outcome Distributions via Swarms of Persona-Conditioned Neural Policy Bots in a Limit Order Book

We propose Persona-Trained Monte Carlo (PTMC), a method for estimating distributions of market-outcome statistics by repeatedly simulating limit-order-book interaction among swarms of persona-conditioned neural-policy trading bots. Each run instantiates many bots sharing one trained policy network but conditioned on heterogeneous, individually sampled persona parameters drawn from a learned trader-heterogeneity distribution; the bots interact in a continuous double auction, and the resulting price path is one Monte Carlo sample.

arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 7

Reliability and Identifiability in Persona-Trained Monte Carlo: Variance Decomposition, Stability Bounds, and the Identifiability of Heterogeneous News Reaction

arXiv:2607. 04627v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Persona-Trained Monte Carlo (PTMC) estimates distributions of market-outcome functionals by repeatedly simulating limit-order-book interaction among $K$ neural policy bots whose behavioral personas are drawn from a learned heterogeneity distribution $\mathcal{P}$.

By Salavat Ishbulatov
arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 3

Human-in-the-Loop Contextual Bandits for Short-Term Rental Dynamic Pricing: Structural Equivalence of Historical Warm-Up and Approval-Gated Live Learning

arXiv:2606. 02595v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Dynamic pricing in short-term rental (STR) markets presents a distinctive challenge for online learning algorithms: pricing decisions carry significant financial risk, operators require explainability, and market feedback is sparse (one booking outcome per listed night).

By Oleg Miroshnichenko
arXiv AI
Aug 7

From Economic Agents to Agentic Economies: A Systems Blueprint for Economic World Models

arXiv:2608. 06020v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Economic World Models (EWMs) are generative economic models that simulate how economies evolve from within by modeling heterogeneous agents, their beliefs and actions, and the market and institutional mechanisms through which their interactions produce aggregate outcomes.

By Jiale Han, Xiang Li, Jing Qian, Wenyuan Gu, Pin Gao, Ye Luo, Hongyuan Zha, Dacheng Tao, Benyou Wang, Lin William Cong
arXiv Machine Learning
6d ago

When Offline Evaluation Misleads: A Diagnostic Protocol for Reward and Policy Selection in Delayed-Feedback Contextual Bandits

arXiv:2608. 11560v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Personalizing marketing messages with contextual multi-armed bandits (CMABs) drives real business value, yet the objective that ultimately matters - a downstream conversion - is observed only weeks later, too late to drive online learning.

By Sang Su Lee, Vineeth Loganathan, Shishir Dash, Vijay Raghavan