We propose Persona-Trained Monte Carlo (PTMC), a method for estimating distributions of market-outcome statistics by repeatedly simulating limit-order-book interaction among swarms of persona-conditioned neural-policy trading bots. Each run instantiates many bots sharing one trained policy network but conditioned on heterogeneous, individually sampled persona parameters drawn from a learned trader-heterogeneity distribution; the bots interact in a continuous double auction, and the resulting price path is one Monte Carlo sample.
arXiv:2606. 29556v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We propose Persona-Trained Monte Carlo (PTMC), a method for estimating distributions of market-outcome statistics by repeatedly simulating limit-order-book interaction among swarms of persona-conditioned neural-policy trading bots.
arXiv:2606. 05296v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: LLM agents operate in two distinct regimes: open-weight agents amenable to reinforcement learning (RL) and black-box agents whose behaviour must be controlled purely at test time.
arXiv:2607. 04627v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Persona-Trained Monte Carlo (PTMC) estimates distributions of market-outcome functionals by repeatedly simulating limit-order-book interaction among $K$ neural policy bots whose behavioral personas are drawn from a learned heterogeneity distribution $\mathcal{P}$.
arXiv:2607. 11632v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Human choice behavior, including route choice, exhibits systematic behavioral biases that deviate from the assumptions of full rationality.
arXiv:2607. 24779v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Online advertising bidding systems typically deploy multiple offline-trained expert models (e.
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arXiv:2310.02423v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We present a new algorithm for amortized inference in sparse probabilistic graphical models (PGMs), which we call $\Delta$-amortized inference ($\D...
arXiv:2606. 02595v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Dynamic pricing in short-term rental (STR) markets presents a distinctive challenge for online learning algorithms: pricing decisions carry significant financial risk, operators require explainability, and market feedback is sparse (one booking outcome per listed night).
arXiv:2608. 06020v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Economic World Models (EWMs) are generative economic models that simulate how economies evolve from within by modeling heterogeneous agents, their beliefs and actions, and the market and institutional mechanisms through which their interactions produce aggregate outcomes.
arXiv:2606. 27711v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We introduce a neural network-based framework for learning time series estimators through a process we term decision-theoretic pretraining.
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Human choice behavior, including route choice, exhibits systematic behavioral biases that deviate from the assumptions of full rationality. Cumulative prospect theory (CPT) has been widely recognized as an effective framework for characterizing such behavioral patterns.