arXiv:2602. 16061v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Estimating population quantities such as mean outcomes from user feedback is fundamental to platform evaluation and social science, yet feedback is often missing not at random (MNAR): users with stronger opinions are more likely to respond, so standard estimators are biased and the estimand is not identified without additional assumptions.
By Hongyu Chen, David Simchi-Levi, Ruoxuan Xiong
arXiv:2607. 18454v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Quantifying the risk of rare failures in language models, such as those triggered by adversarial distribution shifts or very large-scale deployments, requires estimating probabilities far too small for random sampling.
By Nikita Y. Parulekar, Anqi Liu
arXiv:2209. 01754v5 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: The empirical risk minimization approach to data-driven decision making requires access to training data drawn under the same conditions as those that will be faced when the decision rule is deployed.
By Roshni Sahoo, Lihua Lei, Stefan Wager
arXiv:2604. 10727v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Classical information-theoretic learning bounds typically rely on KL mutual information and moment-generating-function (MGF) arguments, which are well matched to bounded or sub-Gaussian losses but can be ineffective when losses or rewards are heavy-tailed.
By Huiming Zhang, Binghan Li, Wan Tian, Qiang Sun
Large Language Models (LLMs) are frequently portrayed as general-purpose solvers capable of solving arbitrary tasks. We argue that this view overlooks a fundamental constraint: language is a compressed and capacity-limited interface for conveying task information.
arXiv:2604. 17267v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Large Language Models can generate synthetic survey responses at low cost, but their accuracy varies unpredictably across questions.
By Zikun Ye, Hema Yoganarasimhan
arXiv:2607. 04081v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: In-context learning (ICL) has emerged as a central capability of pretrained language models, yet its theoretical analysis has focused primarily on causal language models trained by left-to-right autoregressive prediction, such as GPT-style models.
By Chenrui Liu, Chuanlong Xie, Falong Tan, Yicheng Zeng, Lixing Zhu
arXiv:2606. 16923v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Simulation-based inference (SBI) of latent parameters is often hindered by simulator misspecification, the mismatch between simulated and real-world observations caused by inherent modeling simplifications.
By Arunkumar V, Manoranjan Gandhudi, Gangadharan G. R., Arun Prakash, S. Senthilkumar
arXiv:2607. 13612v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Joint-Embedding Predictive Architectures (JEPAs) are the dominant design for latent world models, yet they are usually justified by empirical performance rather than a normative principle.
By Fabio Arnez, Alexandra Gomez-Villa
arXiv:2607. 03882v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: LLMs are increasingly deployed as post-hoc explainers of AI-generated outputs, yet it remains unclear whether they can reliably communicate probabilistic information in natural language.
By Diego Cerda-Mardini, Sarath Chandar, Sreenath Madathil
arXiv:2607. 04627v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Persona-Trained Monte Carlo (PTMC) estimates distributions of market-outcome functionals by repeatedly simulating limit-order-book interaction among $K$ neural policy bots whose behavioral personas are drawn from a learned heterogeneity distribution $\mathcal{P}$.
By Salavat Ishbulatov
arXiv:2601. 05280v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: On the one hand, the question of whether large language models (LLMs) are Solomonoff induction estimators has become an explicit question at the intersection of Algorithmic Information Theory (AIT) and Machine Learning (ML) of great interest.
By Hector Zenil