arXiv:2602. 16061v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Estimating population quantities such as mean outcomes from user feedback is fundamental to platform evaluation and social science, yet feedback is often missing not at random (MNAR): users with stronger opinions are more likely to respond, so standard estimators are biased and the estimand is not identified without additional assumptions.
By Hongyu Chen, David Simchi-Levi, Ruoxuan Xiong
arXiv:2607. 18454v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Quantifying the risk of rare failures in language models, such as those triggered by adversarial distribution shifts or very large-scale deployments, requires estimating probabilities far too small for random sampling.
By Nikita Y. Parulekar, Anqi Liu
The paper introduces Debiased Inference with Multiple Imperfect Measurements (DMM), a framework that uses several error‑prone AI measurements to perform valid downstream statistical inference without requiring costly gold‑standard labels. By assuming conditional independence of the measurements given the true label and unit‑level features, DMM leverages CP decomposition and semiparametric theory to prove consistency and asymptotic normality of its estimator. Simulations demonstrate that DMM yields valid inference and can improve efficiency when additional imperfect measurements are available, and the authors provide diagnostics for the key independence assumption.
By Naoki Egami, Sooahn Shin
arXiv:2609.16454v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Recent work by Doshi and Hauser (2024), Bisbee et al. (2024), and Xie et al. (2026) raises concerns that outputs from large language models (LLMs) tend...
By Kirill Skobelev, Eric Fithian, X. Y. Han
arXiv:2601.05280v4 Announce Type: replace-cross
Abstract: On the one hand, the question of whether Large Language Models (LLMs) are Solomonoff induction estimators has become an explicit question at...
By Hector Zenil, Abicumaran Uthamacumaran, Luan Ozelim
arXiv:2609.15992v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) have rendered them necessary for Natural Language Processing (NLP) tasks, and their high inference cost...
By Foivos Charalampakos, Md Ibrahim Ibne Alam, Iordanis Koutsopoulos, Koushik Kar
The paper argues that Large Language Models (LLMs) do not function as Solomonoff induction estimators because their training objectives—cross‑entropy, negative log‑likelihood, and next‑token prediction—optimize fit to a supplied conditional distribution rather than a program‑weighted universal mixture. It further contends that additional computation alone does not transform these models into optimal predictors without external hyper‑parameter or architectural changes. The authors suggest that neurosymbolic machine learning, exemplified by models such as Fable and Astra, represents a shift toward symbolic model synthesis, moving beyond purely statistical LLMs.
By Hector Zenil, Abicumaran Uthamacumaran, Luan Ozelim
arXiv:2209. 01754v5 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: The empirical risk minimization approach to data-driven decision making requires access to training data drawn under the same conditions as those that will be faced when the decision rule is deployed.
By Roshni Sahoo, Lihua Lei, Stefan Wager
arXiv:2604. 10727v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Classical information-theoretic learning bounds typically rely on KL mutual information and moment-generating-function (MGF) arguments, which are well matched to bounded or sub-Gaussian losses but can be ineffective when losses or rewards are heavy-tailed.
By Huiming Zhang, Binghan Li, Wan Tian, Qiang Sun
arXiv:2603.05575v2 Announce Type: replace-cross
Abstract: We study prediction-powered conditional inference in the setting where labeled data are scarce, unlabeled covariates are abundant, and a blac...
By Yang Sui, Jin Zhou, Hua Zhou, Xiaowu Dai
Large Language Models (LLMs) are frequently portrayed as general-purpose solvers capable of solving arbitrary tasks. We argue that this view overlooks a fundamental constraint: language is a compressed and capacity-limited interface for conveying task information.
The paper introduces OTROPE, a likelihood‑free method for off‑policy evaluation of large language models (LLMs) that uses optimal transport to align labeled samples from a behavior model with unlabeled samples from a target model in a semantic space. OTROPE corrects human‑labeled residuals with proxy predictors, achieving a doubly robust evaluation without requiring behavior‑policy modeling or density‑ratio estimation. The authors provide theoretical guarantees for consistency and convergence, and demonstrate through synthetic and real LLM tasks that OTROPE outperforms existing baselines and can elevate weaker evaluators to match or exceed stronger ones.
By Liner Xiang, Wenbo Zhang, Hengrui Cai