arXiv:2608. 16829v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Video world models approximate the stochastic distribution of physical outcomes through generative sampling, but existing benchmarks score individual generations or compare distributions coarsely over a whole dataset, leaving the fine-grained aleatoric uncertainty of specific phenomena untested.
arXiv:2608. 11954v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Structured potential outcomes such as microscopy images may be recorded after an unknown, unit-specific transformation.
arXiv:2610.10168v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Split conformal prediction uses prediction errors on held-out (calibration) data to determine how wide the prediction intervals should be. It guarant...
COMPLEX is a closed‑form, training‑free embedding for multiparameter persistence modules that provides both an upper and a lower Lipschitz bound, enabling faithful feature representations. By slicing modules along a near‑diagonal net and embedding each slice with the certified PLACE/PALACE landmark map, the method guarantees that separated modules remain separated in the embedding. On Orbit benchmarks and molecular graph tasks, COMPLEX achieves state‑of‑the‑art accuracy, outperforming existing landmark, transformer, and graph‑based approaches.
SpatialUQ is a post‑hoc uncertainty quantification method that uses only the output probabilities of frozen black‑box vision models. It computes the Jensen‑Shannon divergence between the global prediction and the mean of five fixed spatial crops across six deterministic forward passes, assuming that trustworthy predictions are spatially consistent. On the NIH ChestX‑ray14 dataset, SpatialUQ’s Multicrop Uncertainty Score (MUS) achieves a 0.784 failure‑detection AUC—significantly higher than MC‑Dropout—while also providing superior native calibration and improving further when fused with other uncertainty signals.
arXiv:2609.14870v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Counting equivalent pairs is a common way to report transformation-audit coverage, but it can substantially overstate the constraints imposed by an a...
arXiv:2607. 13682v2 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Radiative Gaussian splatting reconstructs sparse-view CT fast and accurately, and recent work attaches per-Gaussian posteriors to yield per-voxel uncertainty maps.
The paper introduces Relation‑Orbit, a symmetry‑aware method for aggregating likelihoods from frozen vision‑language models to verify fine‑grained left‑right claims. It uses a closed‑form contrast that assigns eight normalized likelihoods based on reflection, inverse relation, and entity exchange, and asserts a claim only when the signed contrast exceeds a threshold chosen via Clopper‑Pearson bounds. Experiments on VSR, GQA, and LLaVA‑1.5/COCO show that Relation‑Orbit achieves higher mean test coverage at a 10% selective‑risk calibration target compared to an all‑eight Orbit‑Max baseline across multiple dataset‑backbone settings.
arXiv:2610.33057v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Referring segmentation in low-altitude drone imagery requires distinguishing small, visually similar instances under complex linguistic and spatial c...
The paper presents a closed‑form estimator for the contamination correlation between anchors and judges under a single‑common‑factor model, requiring at least two judges and two anchors. It introduces a diagnostic battery—including judge‑covariance dispersion, over‑identification tests, a family‑block test, bootstrap confidence intervals, and a weak‑identification screen—to validate the estimator and detect violations. The authors also discuss identification limits for ordinal data and report that real panels have not yet passed the model‑adequacy pre‑test, while simulation studies confirm the estimator’s performance.
arXiv:2606. 19147v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: How can training data be used to compare local updates to the current model, choose an update, and retain valid bounds for the selected update's population-risk change?
arXiv:2609.26272v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Neural samplers are trained against an unnormalised target $\tilde\pi=e^{-E}$ with no samples from $\pi$, which leaves the practitioner with no way to...