Multi-agent systems are increasingly used for forecasting future events, as deliberation among multiple LLMs is believed to improve reasoning and calibration. Yet existing approaches overlook a critical design choice: what information each agent receives.
arXiv:2607. 01661v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Multi-agent systems are increasingly used for forecasting future events, as deliberation among multiple LLMs is believed to improve reasoning and calibration.
LEAP (Likelihood Elicitation and Aggregation for Probabilistic forecasting) is a new approach that reorganizes how evidence is used in LLM-based forecasting systems. Instead of a monolithic prediction that aggregates all evidence at once, LEAP examines each evidence item separately, elicits likelihood parameters, and combines them with an explicit prior to produce a posterior distribution. The method supports continuous, single-choice, and multi-choice forecasts and has been shown to improve prediction and calibration metrics across models on a benchmark covering forecasting, information-seeking, and browsing tasks.
arXiv:2606. 02497v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Time series forecasting has advanced rapidly, especially with the emergence of foundation models that show strong zero-shot performance on numerical extrapolation.
arXiv:2609.05905v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: LLM agents are increasingly used for live forecasting, where they retrieve up-to-date information and produce estimates for unresolved future events....
The paper investigates whether in-context learning (ICL) in large language model agents reflects genuine recursive reasoning or simply statistical extrapolation. By testing LLM agents in a public goods game with manipulated historical feedback, the authors compare decision quality to a rational expectations equilibrium benchmark. They find that disrupting historical patterns eliminates the benefits of longer context, especially in highly interdependent settings, indicating that ICL behavior aligns more with statistical extrapolation than strategic reasoning.
arXiv:2604. 18576v4 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We present the Bayesian Linguistic Forecaster (BLF), an agentic system for binary forecasting that achieves state-of-the-art performance on the ForecastBench benchmark.
arXiv:2605. 25929v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: The effectiveness of multi-agent LLM deliberation depends not only on the agents' individual predictions, but also on how they communicate and collaborate.
arXiv:2608.20920v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Open-web future event prediction requires agents to distill reliable signals from noisy, redundant, and incomplete evidence. Existing retrieval/memory...
arXiv:2607. 06157v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Deliberation plays a crucial role in collaboration; when humans work together, they naturally engage in communication to align information and reach an agreement.
Evaluating reasoning quality in multi-agent LLM systems is challenging, especially for open-ended tasks without reference answers. We investigate whether intrinsic confidence signals, token-level log-probabilities from decoding, can predict reasoning quality as assessed by LLM-as-judge evaluation.
The paper investigates when forecasting agents should employ different behaviors—retrieval, reasoning, deferring to market priors, or using historical analogs—on binary forecasting tasks. It finds that the optimal mechanism depends on the data source, with structured analogs excelling for some processes and market or conservative baselines for others. The authors propose ReliabilityRoute, a rule‑based system that steers agent behavior using reliability features, achieving competitive performance across multiple LLM versions while highlighting that more reasoning is not always better.
arXiv:2606. 11816v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Forecasting real-world events requires language-model agents to reason under uncertainty from incomplete, time-bounded information.