arXiv Machine Learning

Drivers, Receivers, and Dynamic Linkages: The Directed Structure of SDG Interdependence, 2000--2024

arXiv:2601. 20875v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Governments with limited fiscal and administrative capacity need to know which Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) propagate progress through the goal system and how quickly.

arXiv AI
Aug 20

Global Index on Responsible AI 2026 : Conceptual Framework and Methodology

The Global Index on Responsible AI 2026 (GIRAI) 2nd Edition refines its predecessor by distinguishing between framework existence and implementation, expanding from three to five thematic areas, and adding granular variables for framework quality. It evaluates responsible AI governance across five dimensions—Inclusion and Diversity, Ethics and Sustainability, Labour and Skills, Trust and Safety, and Use of AI in Public Service—using 38 indicators organized into three pillars: AI Policy, CSO Engagement, and Enabling Conditions, plus a separate Use of Unacceptable Risk AI penalty. Data from 135 country-level researchers and secondary sources are normalized to a 100-point scale, weighted by pillar importance, and used to facilitate systematic cross‑national comparisons for policymakers, civil society, and AI developers.

By Fola Adeleke, Rachel Adams, Ayantola Alayande, Daniela Benavente, Ana Florido, Nicol\'as Grossman, Leah Junck
arXiv AI
Sep 15

Transfer Learning for Socioeconomic Estimation in Forced-Displacement Settings

The paper presents a transfer‑learning approach that adapts a multimodal spatiotemporal vision transformer, originally trained on Demographic and Health Survey data, to estimate socioeconomic conditions in forced‑displacement settings. Using satellite‑derived geospatial covariates, the adapted model explains up to 66% of variation in socioeconomic outcomes in camp‑intersecting grids and 41% in non‑camp areas, achieving mean absolute errors of 4.37 and 5.41 index points respectively. This framework supplements periodic household surveys by providing regularly updated, spatially granular socioeconomic estimates that bridge data gaps between survey rounds.

By Steven Ndung'u, Adel Daoud, Ismael Yacoubou Djima, Hai-Anh H. Dang, Patrick Michael Brock
arXiv Machine Learning
5d ago

One Capability or Many? Structural and Predictive Tests of Benchmark Validity Disagree About Economic Benchmarks for Frontier AI

The paper examines whether economic benchmarks used in frontier AI leaderboards measure a distinct capability or merely reflect general test-taking ability. Using a structural factor analysis and a predictive leave-one-benchmark-out test on a snapshot of 421 model configurations, the authors find that economic benchmarks do not form a separate factor but are better predicted by a multi‑factor representation than by a single general index, especially for linear learners. They argue that construct validity should be evaluated with both structural and predictive tests and provide a two‑test protocol along with data and code.

By Louis Yiven Zhu
arXiv AI
Jul 17

Global Index on Responsible AI: 2026 Report

arXiv:2607. 14782v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Grounded in human rights-based frameworks such as the UNESCO Recommendation on the Ethics of AI, the Global Index on Responsible AI (GIRAI) examines how countries translate responsible AI commitments into enforceable protections, institutional capacity, and redress mechanisms.

By Rachel Adams, Fola Adeleke, Ayantola Alayande, Selamawit Engida Abdella, Ana Florido, Nicol\'as Grossman, Leah Junck
arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 31

DoTime: A Synthetic Benchmark Generator for Interventional and Counterfactual Time Series

arXiv:2607. 27263v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Most benchmarks for causal inference over time series are observational, small, or domain-specific, leaving interventional and counterfactual estimation under-served exactly where it matters most, such as in healthcare, policy evaluation, and climate science.

By Dennis Thumm, Billy Tim Anthony, Ying Chen