arXiv:2608. 12555v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Predictive explanation methods attribute a model output; they do not, by themselves, attribute an intervention effect on the real-world outcome.
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The paper introduces a causal mediation framework to separate direct discrimination from structural inequality in AI-driven credit decisions. Using Pearl’s natural direct and indirect effects, it presents an identification strategy under treatment‑induced confounding and proposes a doubly‑robust estimator with efficiency guarantees. Empirical analysis of 89,465 mortgage applications shows that about 77% of racial denial disparities stem from financial mediators, while the remaining 23% represents a conservative lower bound on direct discrimination.
arXiv:2606. 10703v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Interpretability methods routinely use population-level summary statistics over observed model behaviour to license claims about the effects of targeted interventions on specific computations; in Pearl's terms, they treat rung-1 associational evidence as if it supported rung-2 interventional conclusions, a move whose validity is rarely tested.
arXiv:2609.36881v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Causal foundation models (CFMs) pre-trained on data generated from various structural causal models (SCMs) have been proposed for estimating causal eff...
arXiv:2607. 29484v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Interventional data is widely regarded as the gold standard for teaching models causal reasoning.
arXiv:2606. 08275v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: When an LLM agent fails -- issues a refund it should not have, calls the wrong tool, leaks data -- existing tooling answers what happened (observability) or whether it passed (evaluation), but not which step caused the failure.
The paper proposes Causal Evidentiary Governance (CEG), a framework that requires regulated institutions to maintain a versioned directed acyclic graph (DAG) separating allowable from disallowed causal pathways in high‑risk machine learning systems. CEG introduces the Causal Harm Rate to quantify prediction variation due to disallowed pathways and pairs each decision with a signed Decision‑Evidence Packet (DEP) that cryptographically links the prediction to the DAG and path‑specific attributions, enabling efficient inclusion proofs via a Merkle tree. Empirical validation on synthetic credit data and the German Credit dataset demonstrates that CEG more clearly isolates causal effects than traditional fairness metrics and that a proof‑of‑concept implementation shows operational feasibility with manageable performance tradeoffs.