The paper examines whether economic benchmarks used in frontier AI leaderboards measure a distinct capability or merely reflect general test-taking ability. Using a structural factor analysis and a predictive leave-one-benchmark-out test on a snapshot of 421 model configurations, the authors find that economic benchmarks do not form a separate factor but are better predicted by a multi‑factor representation than by a single general index, especially for linear learners. They argue that construct validity should be evaluated with both structural and predictive tests and provide a two‑test protocol along with data and code.
arXiv:2608.29420v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Frontier-model leaderboards now rank systems based on economic benchmarks, tests of how well models carry out professional tasks from software engineer...
arXiv:2606. 24020v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: A modern model release reports scores on 40+ benchmarks and the same evaluations were run many more times before it: to track training progress, compare design choices, and select the checkpoint for the release.
The paper introduces Balance of Benchmarks (BoB), a framework that improves task-conditioned model comparison by weighting benchmark evidence based on semantic density, equating scores across varying difficulty levels, and pooling task-relevant residuals. BoB retains all eligible benchmark data while adjusting its influence, outperforming uniform averaging on the WildScores dataset with higher Spearman correlation, lower MAE, and better shortlist hit rates. The method also reduces ranking instability when benchmarks are repeated or paraphrased, and lowers retrospective regret in model selection.
arXiv:2607. 25891v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Evaluating AI agents in interactive environments is hindered by fragmented tasks, scaffolds, verifiers, and scoring rules.
arXiv:2607. 02032v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Evaluating LLM agents on benchmarks like SWE-Bench and GAIA can be expensive, time-consuming, and requires complex infrastructure.
arXiv:2607. 09739v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We study LLM benchmark coreset selection: selecting a small subset of prompts over multiple benchmarks whose induced model scores and rankings approximate those obtained from the full benchmark suite.
arXiv:2608. 11891v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Governments increasingly fund indigenous foundation models to strengthen national AI capability, digital sovereignty, and multilingual computing.
arXiv:2607. 24889v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Financial models combine public disclosures with analyst assumptions to produce forecasts and valuations.
The paper demonstrates that the outcome of a forecasting leaderboard is largely determined by the evaluator’s design choices rather than the models themselves. By fixing the data, horizon, and period, the authors varied three key evaluation decisions—unit of analysis, error pooling, and scoring metric—and showed that each can reverse or eliminate the apparent superiority of any forecasting method. The study also evaluates the practical impact of these choices on a deployed system, revealing that the selection rule captures a significant portion of the potential performance gain, and confirms the findings on an external public dataset.
arXiv:2608. 14903v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Quantitative forecasts of frontier artificial intelligence often connect dated targets to trends in benchmark scores, training compute, release time, or expert belief.
arXiv:2606. 28471v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Model capability is the central variable in LLM pre-training, yet is never observed directly: data shapes it prospectively, while evaluation reveals it only retrospectively, compressing samples, prompts, decoding, and scoring rules into one noisy score.
arXiv:2606. 10287v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Evaluating Knowledge Graph Completion (KGC) models remains challenging because standard assessment relies on isolated rank-based metrics such as MRR, Hits$@$k, and Mean Rank, which often produce conflicting model orderings across datasets.