arXiv:2606. 09944v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: GDP per capita is the default lens through which governibng bodies track the economic prosperity and consequences of economic events , yet it is blind to two first-order determinants of lived prosperity: income/wealth distribution and inflation impact.
arXiv:2607. 05404v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Frontier AI's labor-market effects matter to workers, firms, and policymakers, but current evidence generally comes from a handful of high-income economies.
The paper introduces LiveMacroEval, a live benchmark that tests large language model (LLM) agents’ ability to produce hourly nowcasts for sixteen major U.S. macroeconomic indicators before their official release. It evaluates LLM performance against institutional nowcasts, Bloomberg ECOS consensus, and an auto-ARIMA baseline using a LiveMacro Score linked to announcement-window equity returns and a LiveBetting Score from simulated Polymarket-style trading. Over six months, state-of-the-art LLMs with web search achieved overall accuracy comparable to professional benchmarks, though performance varied across indicators.
arXiv:2601. 20875v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Governments with limited fiscal and administrative capacity need to know which Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) propagate progress through the goal system and how quickly.
arXiv:2607. 26068v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Existing AI governance frameworks, including the EU AI Act and NIST AI RMF, address safety, transparency, and accountability but do not operationalize quantitative constraints on macro-socioeconomic stability.
arXiv:2608. 01432v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Artificial general intelligence (AGI) may weaken scarcities in labour, expertise, information, and productive capability that underpin established theories of economic value.
How much could AI revolutionize the economy?
arXiv:2605. 20281v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We develop a unified microeconomic and monetary theory of artificial intelligence inference costs and their pass-through to inflation, welfare, and optimal monetary policy.
arXiv:2608.29843v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Posted prices for AI inference have fallen steadily since 2024, yet the measured speed of that fall depends almost entirely on the method of measurem...
arXiv:2605. 17086v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Automation can displace or complement labour, but this need not be constant across economies.
arXiv:2608. 20231v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: The standard objection to full automation is demand-side: if humans earn nothing, who buys the output?
The paper proposes a framework that connects structured hazard analysis, component-level testing, and probabilistic system modelling to assess system-level harms from AI in complex sociotechnical systems. It demonstrates the approach using the UK's Real Time Gross Settlement system, showing how adversarial inputs to LLM-based trading can shift AI behaviour, reduce system resilience, and increase the likelihood of cascading bank failures. The framework aims to provide a traceable pathway from model behaviour to systemic outcomes, enabling evidence-based governance of AI in critical infrastructure.
arXiv:2608. 14903v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Quantitative forecasts of frontier artificial intelligence often connect dated targets to trends in benchmark scores, training compute, release time, or expert belief.
