arXiv:2212. 05260v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Proper scoring rules encourage probabilistic predictions that match the true underlying distribution and are central to model evaluation, with increasing relevance in automated workflows such as AutoML.
By John Zobolas, Raphael Sonabend, Riccardo De Bin, Johannes Piller, Philipp Kopper, Lukas Burk, Andreas Bender
arXiv:2606. 02671v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Machine learning predictors have become essential tools for guiding automated decision making.
By Itai Zilberstein, Ioannis Anagnostides, Tuomas Sandholm
arXiv:2607. 19526v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: "Stop Chasing the C-index when Evaluating Survival Analysis Models" (ICML 2026, Spotlight) argued normatively, on synthetic data, that evaluating survival models by discrimination alone, i.
By Rafael da Silva, Danilo Alvares
arXiv:2608. 16594v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Cancer survival prediction supports treatment planning, risk stratification, and follow-up management.
By Tianqi Xiang, Qixiang Zhang, Xinpeng Ding, Yi Li, Xiaomeng Li
arXiv:2607. 16802v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Deep survival models are evaluated almost exclusively by the concordance index (C-index), yet they are commonly trained using likelihood objectives such as the Cox partial likelihood, discrete-time negative log-likelihood, and DeepHit likelihood.
By Meixu Chen, Kai Wang, Jing Wang
arXiv:2606. 06393v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Proper scoring rules provide a rigorous theoretical basis for the training and evaluation of probabilistic forecasts.
By Jef Jonkers, Glenn Van Wallendael, Luc Duchateau, Sofie Van Hoecke
arXiv:2608. 00271v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: A wide range of statistical and machine learning methods have been proposed for survival analysis with competing risks, where the occurrence of one event (i.
By Bego\~na B. Sierra, Colin McLean, Peter S. Hall, Sarah Friedrich-Welz, Catalina A. Vallejos
arXiv:2606. 03689v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Survival Analysis (SA) is a statistical framework that models the time span until some event of interest occurs.
By Mariana Vargas Vieyra
arXiv:2606. 04564v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Tabular foundation models (TFMs) have made rapid progress in standard classification and regression, but time-to-event survival prediction tasks have remained largely untouched.
By Samuel B\"ohm (Institute of Epidemiology and Prevention, Medical Center - University of Freiburg, Faculty of Medicine, University of Freiburg, Freiburg, Germany), Lennart Purucker (Department of Computer Science, University of Freiburg, Freiburg, Germany, PriorLabs, Freiburg, Germany), Frank Hutter (Department of Computer Science, University of Freiburg, Freiburg, Germany, PriorLabs, Freiburg, Germany), Pascal Schlosser (Institute of Epidemiology and Prevention, Medical Center - University of Freiburg, Faculty of Medicine, University of Freiburg, Freiburg, Germany, Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, US, CIBSS - Centre for Integrative Biological Signalling Studies, University of Freiburg, Freiburg, Germany)
Proper scoring rules provide a rigorous theoretical basis for the training and evaluation of probabilistic forecasts. However, in the presence of right censoring, the event time is only partially observed, rendering conventional scoring rules inapplicable in their standard form.
arXiv:2607. 10466v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Survival models can model time-to-event outcomes using partially observed data.
By Yanqi Xu, Hui Dai, Carlos Fernandez-Granda, Krzysztof J. Geras, Yiqiu Shen
arXiv:2608. 04025v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Whole-slide survival models commonly provide risk rankings without calibrated statements about individual event times.
By Mingi Hong