arXiv Machine Learning

Position: Stop Chasing the C-index when Evaluating Survival Analysis Models

arXiv:2506. 02075v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: The current state of evaluation in survival analysis is plagued by the persistent use of evaluation metrics in ways that are misaligned with the stated modeling objective.

arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 22

When Are Scoring Rules Proper? Bridging Theory and Practice in Survival Model Evaluation

arXiv:2212. 05260v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Proper scoring rules encourage probabilistic predictions that match the true underlying distribution and are central to model evaluation, with increasing relevance in automated workflows such as AutoML.

By John Zobolas, Raphael Sonabend, Riccardo De Bin, Johannes Piller, Philipp Kopper, Lukas Burk, Andreas Bender
arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 4

SurvPFN: Towards Foundation Models for Survival Predictions

arXiv:2606. 04564v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Tabular foundation models (TFMs) have made rapid progress in standard classification and regression, but time-to-event survival prediction tasks have remained largely untouched.

By Samuel B\"ohm (Institute of Epidemiology and Prevention, Medical Center - University of Freiburg, Faculty of Medicine, University of Freiburg, Freiburg, Germany), Lennart Purucker (Department of Computer Science, University of Freiburg, Freiburg, Germany, PriorLabs, Freiburg, Germany), Frank Hutter (Department of Computer Science, University of Freiburg, Freiburg, Germany, PriorLabs, Freiburg, Germany), Pascal Schlosser (Institute of Epidemiology and Prevention, Medical Center - University of Freiburg, Faculty of Medicine, University of Freiburg, Freiburg, Germany, Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, US, CIBSS - Centre for Integrative Biological Signalling Studies, University of Freiburg, Freiburg, Germany)
Hugging Face Trending Papers
Jun 4

Proper Scoring Rules for Right-Censored Survival Data

Proper scoring rules provide a rigorous theoretical basis for the training and evaluation of probabilistic forecasts. However, in the presence of right censoring, the event time is only partially observed, rendering conventional scoring rules inapplicable in their standard form.