The paper introduces a causal mediation framework to separate direct discrimination from structural inequality in AI-driven credit decisions. Using Pearl’s natural direct and indirect effects, it presents an identification strategy under treatment‑induced confounding and proposes a doubly‑robust estimator with efficiency guarantees. Empirical analysis of 89,465 mortgage applications shows that about 77% of racial denial disparities stem from financial mediators, while the remaining 23% represents a conservative lower bound on direct discrimination.
arXiv:2607. 19389v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: As AI-driven Decision Makers (ADMs) influence our socioeconomic reality, their roles in both enhancing efficiency and amplifying the social biases have drawn attention.
The paper proposes Causal Evidentiary Governance (CEG), a framework that requires regulated institutions to maintain a versioned directed acyclic graph (DAG) separating allowable from disallowed causal pathways in high‑risk machine learning systems. CEG introduces the Causal Harm Rate to quantify prediction variation due to disallowed pathways and pairs each decision with a signed Decision‑Evidence Packet (DEP) that cryptographically links the prediction to the DAG and path‑specific attributions, enabling efficient inclusion proofs via a Merkle tree. Empirical validation on synthetic credit data and the German Credit dataset demonstrates that CEG more clearly isolates causal effects than traditional fairness metrics and that a proof‑of‑concept implementation shows operational feasibility with manageable performance tradeoffs.
arXiv:2607. 28497v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Algorithmic recourse aims to provide individuals with actionable changes to improve their predicted outcomes in high-stakes classification settings, such as loan and mortgage applications.
arXiv:2608. 08202v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Data-centric curation pipelines frequently rely on model confidence scores to flag and filter noisy or mislabeled training instances.
Credit risk models increasingly need to combine predictive accuracy with transparent explanations and auditable fairness constraints. Logistic regression remains attractive because its coefficients ar...
arXiv:2608. 12555v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Predictive explanation methods attribute a model output; they do not, by themselves, attribute an intervention effect on the real-world outcome.
arXiv:2609.30396v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: This paper presents an end-to-end causal machine learning (ML) pipeline designed for real-world applications with continuous treatments. The proposed...
arXiv:2608.24582v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Credit risk models increasingly need to combine predictive accuracy with transparent explanations and auditable fairness constraints. Logistic regres...
The paper introduces FAPE, a four‑stage framework for evaluating the post‑processing fairness intervention ThresholdOptimizer across eight diverse domains, including criminal justice, finance, healthcare, and education. It reports that the intervention reduces disparity in most high‑disparity cases but can worsen fairness when baseline disparities are low, and that a single deployment‑time audit is unreliable without continuous monitoring and baseline‑disparity screening.
arXiv:2605. 13430v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Selection bias is pervasive in observational studies.
arXiv:2606. 27114v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Uplift modeling, crucial for estimating individual treatment effects (ITE), faces dual challenges: flexibly leveraging inter-group similarity to enhance discriminative power and debiasing under unobserved confounding scenarios.
arXiv:2606. 08275v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: When an LLM agent fails -- issues a refund it should not have, calls the wrong tool, leaks data -- existing tooling answers what happened (observability) or whether it passed (evaluation), but not which step caused the failure.