arXiv AI

Causal Evidentiary Governance for High-Risk Machine Learning Systems

The paper proposes Causal Evidentiary Governance (CEG), a framework that requires regulated institutions to maintain a versioned directed acyclic graph (DAG) separating allowable from disallowed causal pathways in high‑risk machine learning systems. CEG introduces the Causal Harm Rate to quantify prediction variation due to disallowed pathways and pairs each decision with a signed Decision‑Evidence Packet (DEP) that cryptographically links the prediction to the DAG and path‑specific attributions, enabling efficient inclusion proofs via a Merkle tree. Empirical validation on synthetic credit data and the German Credit dataset demonstrates that CEG more clearly isolates causal effects than traditional fairness metrics and that a proof‑of‑concept implementation shows operational feasibility with manageable performance tradeoffs.

arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 14

Decomposing Discrimination: Causal Mediation Analysis for AI-Driven Credit Decisions

The paper introduces a causal mediation framework to separate direct discrimination from structural inequality in AI-driven credit decisions. Using Pearl’s natural direct and indirect effects, it presents an identification strategy under treatment‑induced confounding and proposes a doubly‑robust estimator with efficiency guarantees. Empirical analysis of 89,465 mortgage applications shows that about 77% of racial denial disparities stem from financial mediators, while the remaining 23% represents a conservative lower bound on direct discrimination.

By Duraimurugan Rajamanickam
arXiv AI
Aug 19

Communicating Credit Risk with Large Language Models: Evaluation of Explanations from Standard and Alternative Data-Based Models

The study investigates whether Large Language Models (LLMs) can translate technical explanations from credit risk models into stakeholder-friendly narratives. Using Freddie Mac loan data, the authors compare standard tabular models (XGBoost + SHAP) with alternative data pipelines (GNN + GNNExplainer and a bimodal mix) and generate explanations with three LLM configurations: a small fine‑tuned Gemma 3 4B, a large fine‑tuned DeepSeek R1 70B, and a zero‑shot Gemini 2.5. Findings show that the quality of explanations is more dependent on the evidence representation than on the LLM, that narratives reliably identify influential factors but are less consistent about the direction of influence, and that credit professionals demand higher evidentiary standards than non‑professionals.

By Sahab Zandi, Noah Kostesku, Christophe Mues, Mar\'ia \'Oskarsd\'ottir, Cristi\'an Bravo
arXiv AI
3d ago

Governance-Aware Federated Learning for Multi-Agent AI Systems: A Policy-Driven Framework for Trustworthy Collaborative AI

The paper introduces Governance-Aware Federated Learning (GAFL), a framework that enhances traditional federated learning with independent governance verification, fairness and explainability assessment, anomaly detection, policy enforcement, and tamper‑evident audit logging. In a cross‑silo prototype with 10 participants, GAFL successfully identified all falsified‑evidence participants and intervened on affected participants across various threat scenarios, achieving macro‑F1 scores between 0.7520 and 0.7733. The added governance processing time per round was 173.67 ± 26.94 ms, compared to 3.82 ± 0.79 ms for standard FedAvg, highlighting a trade‑off between fairness policy enforcement and utility.

By Kiranmayee Janardhan, Karthick S, Madhusmita Panda, Bharathi Vokkaliga Ganesh, Syed Ahmed
arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 24

When Post-Processing Fairness Constraints Help and When They Harm: Evidence from Eight Cross-Domain Evaluations

The paper introduces FAPE, a four‑stage framework for evaluating the post‑processing fairness intervention ThresholdOptimizer across eight diverse domains, including criminal justice, finance, healthcare, and education. It reports that the intervention reduces disparity in most high‑disparity cases but can worsen fairness when baseline disparities are low, and that a single deployment‑time audit is unreliable without continuous monitoring and baseline‑disparity screening.

By Nithin Raghava Ramachandra Narla
arXiv AI
Aug 28

Fairness Invariants: A Relational Approach to Explaining and Mitigating Fairness Bugs

The paper introduces REMI, a framework that treats counterfactual fairness as a relational invariant discovery problem. By learning over paired examples, REMI identifies input regions where fairness is violated and generates interpretable rule-based models—fairness invariants—that can block or relabel unfair predictions without retraining the underlying model. Experiments on symbolic and neural network programs show REMI localizes fairness bugs in over 83% of cases and reduces discriminatory decisions in black-box models by up to 70%.

By Ranit Debnath Akash, Ashish Kumar, Gang Tan, Saeid Tizpaz-Niari
arXiv AI
Aug 20

CausalProfiler: Generating Synthetic Benchmarks for Rigorous and Transparent Evaluation of Causal Machine Learning

CausalProfiler is a synthetic benchmark generator designed to evaluate causal machine learning (Causal ML) methods more rigorously and transparently. It randomly samples causal models, data, queries, and ground truths based on explicit design choices across observation, intervention, and counterfactual reasoning levels, providing coverage guarantees and transparent assumptions. The authors demonstrate its utility by testing several state‑of‑the‑art methods under diverse conditions, both within and outside the identification regime, highlighting the insights CausalProfiler can reveal.

By Panayiotis Panayiotou, Audrey Poinsot, Alessandro Leite, Nicolas Chesneau, Marc Schoenauer, \"Ozg\"ur \c{S}im\c{s}ek
arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 25

Not All Synthetic Data Are Equal: Expert-Committee Audit Screening for Imbalanced Crash-Injury-Severity Prediction in Automated Driving Systems

The paper introduces Expert-Committee Audit Screening (ECAS), a framework that evaluates the credibility of synthetic minority samples for predicting crash injury severity in automated driving systems. Using real incident data from the NHTSA, ECAS filters generated samples based on label support, boundary separation, committee agreement, and local plausibility, then selects accepted samples via within‑class percentile normalization and Pareto non‑dominated sorting. The best ECAS configuration, combined with normalizing flow augmentation and a TabPFN classifier, outperformed other evidence settings in balanced accuracy, macro‑F1, and minor‑injury recall, and analysis showed ECAS‑accepted samples were better supported by nearby real crashes.

By Zewei Li, Qiaoqiao Ren, Hang Yang, S. C. Wong, Stergios-Aristoteles Mitoulis, Yun Ye